When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. abandoned his run for the White House as an independent and endorsed former President Donald Trump in August, he laid out an electoral strategy that he said would boost the Republican candidate's possibilities in must-win swing states.
Kennedy, who spent most of his campaign fighting for electoral certification, announced on August 23 that he would change course and take away his name from the ballots of swing states where Trump may gain advantage from a direct duel with Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Our polls have consistently shown that if I stay on the ballot in the swing states, I would probably give the election to the Democrats,” Kennedy said.
But Kennedy's technique to disappear from the ballot didn’t go in response to plan.
Despite his efforts to withdraw his name in order that it doesn’t appear as an option on the printed ballots, Kennedy stays firmly on the ballots in North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan.
This significantly reduces the potential electoral advantage Trump could gain in these states consequently of Kennedy's departure.
Candidates from minor parties cannot withdraw in Michigan. On Tuesday, a judge of the Michigan Court of Claims ruled rejected Kennedy's challenge the choice of the state.
The Wisconsin Elections Commission voted to maintain Kennedy on the state's ballot. North Carolina State Board of Elections The same applies to the judgment that Kennedy sought to have overturned through a lawsuit.
Kennedy’s failures in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Michigan are particularly significant because these are three of only five swing states by which Opinion poll shows that Trump would do higher in a direct comparison with Harris without Kennedy. The other two are Arizona and Pennsylvania.
In the 2 remaining swing states – Nevada and Georgia – polls suggest that Kennedy's withdrawal from the race could even have a negative impact on Trump, as his overall lead shrinks as the sector shrinks from six candidates to only two.
With Kennedy still running in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, Trump is unlikely to see the surge in support in those states that the newly formed Trump-Kennedy alliance had hoped for.
This leaves only Arizona and Pennsylvania as states where Kennedy's departure will obviously profit Trump.
Kennedy also withdrew from the race in Florida, Texas and Ohio, although these three states are considered sure Trump winners on this election cycle.
Kennedy's support may gain advantage Trump in other ways as well, even when his attempts to extend the Republican vote share have been unsuccessful.
During his controversial campaign, Kennedy was capable of gain momentum by appealing to undecided voters who were disillusioned with candidates from each establishment parties. Trump now hopes that Kennedy's seal of approval will give him more weight with those voters.
“He could have gotten a lot of votes,” Trump said of Kennedy on the Arizona rally in August.
“I think he will have a big impact on this election campaign.”
With 63 days to go before Election Day, Harris was leading the nation at 48.1% to Trump's 46.2%, in response to the RCP poll average as of Tuesday afternoon.
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