Kalina Borkiewicz, Malika Khurana, Karthik Patanjali and Bedel Saget
The huge support that Vice President Kamala Harris has received at her rallies has unnerved former President Donald J. Trump, who for years has emphasized and often exaggerated the scale of his crowds. He has said – often repeating untruths – that his crowds are much larger than Ms. Harris's, and the Harris campaign has responded with its own jibes in regards to the enthusiasm of Trump rallygoers.
We visited six rallies – all of the campaign events held by the candidates during a three-week period in August – in six states and took photos, video and 360-degree footage to investigate what claims about crowd sizes hold water. The evaluation found that, despite Trump's claims, each candidates draw comparatively large crowds.
On a Friday night, Trump attracted 11,500 people to the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona. This is what it looked like:
Photographs and composition by Kalina Borkiewicz and Karthik Patanjali
On a Tuesday night through the week-long Democratic National Convention in late August, Ms. Harris drew 12,800 people to a campaign rally on the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Here is a scene from the rally:
Photographs and composition by Malika Khurana and Bedel Saget
At the 4 other campaign rallies attended by The Times, attendance was similarly good, with spectators generally filling the space allocated for the event. The rallies were held in venues with a maximum capability of 6,800 to 19,300 people, although in some cases seating areas were cordoned off and extra seating or standing space was arrange.
Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, August 17
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images (Las Vegas), Christian Monterrosa/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images (Savannah), Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images (Bozeman), Doug Mills/The New York Times (Wilkes-Barre)
For each of the six events, the Times counted the number of individuals seen within the footage taken immediately after each candidate began speaking, including people in poorly lit and darkened areas. This number doesn’t have in mind individuals who can have left before the footage was taken or who arrived late.
Estimated crowds at campaign events
Harris
| Sat., Aug. 10 | Vegas | 6,200 |
| Tue, 20 August | Milwaukee, Wisconsin. | 12,800 |
| Thu, Aug 29 | Savannah, Georgia. | 6,200 |
Trump
| Fri, Aug 9 | Bozeman, Montana. | 4,300 |
| Sat., Aug. 17 | Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania. | 5,900 |
| Fri, Aug 23 | Glendale, Arizona. | 11,500 |
Experts say the scale of the gang at rallies does in a roundabout way affect the election victory or defeat. For one thing, organizers may strategically select small-capacity venues, similar to university buildings, where only a couple of hundred people can attend. The day of the week and time of day may also affect the scale of the gang and once they arrive or leave.
Still, crowd size has been a sensitive issue for Mr. Trump throughout his political profession, and his fixation on it has intensified recently as enthusiasm for the brand new Democratic slate has grown. Mr. Trump falsely claimed that photographs of the crowds at Ms. Harris's events were doctored using artificial intelligence.
In response, the Harris team released a video compilation of moments during Trump's rallies by which audience members might be seen yawning. In a separate post on Truth Social, in addition they wrote that members of Trump's audience left the Pennsylvania event early, “leaving even more empty seats.”
The Times found that individuals left two of Trump's three events early, including during his speech.
Photos taken during Trump's rallies show where people left their seats. Below is a series of photos from his August 17 rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, taken 13 minutes and just over an hour after he began his speech.
Examples of crowd thinning during Trump's speech in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania.
Malika Khurana and Karthik Patanjali
And this shows where the seats emptied an hour after Trump began his speech on the August 23 rally in Glendale, Arizona.
Examples of crowd thinning during Trump's speech in Glendale, Arizona.
Kalina Borkiewicz and Karthik Patanjali
The longer duration of a Trump event compared with a Harris event can have contributed to a bigger variety of early departures. Attendees at Trump rallies tended to reach earlier within the day, and opening remarks tended to start out earlier and last more. At the six rallies The Times attended, Mr. Trump spoke 4 times so long as Ms. Harris.
How long did the demonstrations last?
Note: The start time of every rally is dependent upon the scheduled door opener.
The New York Times
Although there is simply a limited connection between crowd size and election results, the very public exchange of blows between the 2 campaign teams over this metric suggests that it has not less than some political significance.
Large, enthusiastic crowds may also help motivate the candidate during his or her speech, says Todd Belt, director of the political management program at George Washington University. They may also contribute to a “bandwagon effect,” showing those not present in individual that enthusiasm for a candidate is real.
“Even though I don't think these events change people's minds, they do make them feel like they're not alone,” said Betsy Reiser, 62, who attended a rally for Harris in Savannah, Georgia. “It's very important to feel like you belong.”
The Times took 360-degree photos of the rallies every two minutes from the time the doors opened until the tip of the events, and panoramic photos every quarter-hour. To estimate crowd size, the Times counted the people in a single panoramic photo just before or through the candidate's speech, when the gang was expected to be at its densest. The number was then rounded to the closest hundred.
Note: Green dots represent the people Times reporters manually counted in the sector.
Graphics by Kalina Borkiewicz, photography and composition by Malika Khurana and Bedel Saget
Areas obscured by our cameras were photographed and analyzed individually, then combined with the most important count where mandatory. The photos were compiled right into a single composite image showing a 360-degree view of the sector. Timestamps from the photos, which were matched to official campaign information and recorded broadcasts, were used to find out speaking time.
image credit : www.nytimes.com