A brand new nationwide survey shows that Proposition 36, a ballot measure aimed toward rolling back criminal justice reforms of the past decade and imposing tougher penalties for theft and drug offenses, is having fun with overwhelming support, suggesting it’s going to easily pass in November, in response to newly released data from the Public Policy Institute of California.
The PPIC, which has studied a spread of issues related to the November election, from the presidential race to other state-level referendums, reported Wednesday that its polls conducted between late August and early September show that 71 percent of likely voters support Proposition 36, while only 26 percent oppose it.
Mark Baldassare, PPIC's national poll director, said the questions on Proposition 36 generated high levels of engagement amongst respondents and highlighted its general support.
“This is an unusual level of support for a proposal,” Baldassare said. “We don't use the term 'overwhelming majority' lightly here. I was impressed by the level of support you see across all ideologies.”
According to the authors, the proposed bill would amend existing law to eliminate the $950 threshold above which theft might be punished as a serious crime and to impose stricter penalties for drug trafficking, which has fueled the fentanyl and opioid crises.
Several of the proposed changes would overturn parts of House Bill 47, which was approved by nearly 60 percent of state voters in 2014 and would make theft and lesser drug offenses misdemeanors, a part of a broader movement to comply with a U.S. Supreme Court order to cut back the state's prison population.
Proposition 36 has a large lead in all regions of the state classified by PPIC. The largest region, the Los Angeles area, reflects the 71% to 26% national spread between supporters and opponents. The Bay Area has the narrowest gap, with 64% in favor and 32% against, in response to polling data.
The PPIC, which surveyed greater than 1,000 likely voters, also suggests that the portrayal of Proposition 36 as a moderate proposal resonated with Californians. Poll data showed that 77 percent of respondents who described themselves as politically moderate supported the proposal, and that 85 percent and 56 percent of self-identified conservatives and liberals did so, respectively.
Baldassare said that while it could take “efforts on the part of the no side” to narrow the gap, the end result of the vote will not be clear from the outset. From now until November, he said, voters can be more engaged with the problems and more more likely to move from a “yes” position to a “no” position than the opposite way around.
“That's obviously got people's attention,” he said. “Whether that support stays this high or changes over time depends on what voters hear from both sides.”
Proposition 36 was inspired by, amongst other things, the increased visibility of organized shoplifting, sparked by viral videos which have flooded social media for the reason that start of the pandemic, in addition to an enormous increase in fentanyl-related crimes and deaths each in California and across the country. A central component of the proposed law would make any theft, no matter value, a felony if committed by a one that has already been convicted of theft twice.
According to the U.S. Department of Justice, property crime within the nine Bay Area counties, excluding Alameda County, has continued to say no over the past decade (as of the top of 2023). Nationally, the property crime rate has fallen by greater than 14 percent.
However, a PPIC evaluation of California Department of Justice figures also shows that shoplifting increased 28 percent between 2019 and 2023, with 90 percent of that increase occurring in Alameda, San Mateo, Los Angeles and Sacramento counties.
In addition, Proposition 36 supporters – which include San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and San Francisco Mayor London Breed, the state associations of police chiefs, sheriffs and district attorneys, and firms starting from small Bay Area restaurants to Walmart, Target and Home Depot – argue that shoplifting continues to be underreported since it is currently classified as a misdemeanor.
Gov. Gavin Newsom and his allies opposed the measure, at one point proposing a competing ballot measure that he then withdrew. Last month, Newsom signed a package of crime bills that addressed the tenets of Proposition 36, particularly by giving prosecutors the ability to consolidate multiple thefts to satisfy the present $950 felony threshold.
The nonpartisan Office of the Legislative Analyst has estimated that Proposal 36 would increase government costs by “tens of millions of dollars” to “several hundred million dollars” by increasing the prison population. However, the LAO cited immense potential for the initiative to cut back costs through reduced crime.
Opponents, including Contra Costa County District Attorney Diana Becton, former San Jose and San Diego police chief William Landsdowne and plenty of civil rights and criminal justice reform groups, argue that the proposal will primarily result in the next prison population and divert funds from mental health and other prevention programs. They also claim that a police and court-led response to problems comparable to drug addiction and homelessness would represent a return to ineffective “war on drugs” policies.
Supporters argue that Proposition 47 has led to unprecedented shoplifting and other drug-motivated property crimes, and that Proposition 36's proposal to offer certain drug offenders a selection between court-ordered rehabilitation or prison is a response to the ineffectiveness of current policies.
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