Why water costs for poor black voters in Detroit could determine whether Kamala Harris wins or loses in Michigan

The threat of violence was within the air on the TCF Center in Detroit on November 5, 2020, after former President Donald Trump claimed that poll employees in the town duplicated ballots and that there was an unexplained delay within the delivery of ballots for counting.

Both Claims were later refuted.

Encouraged by Trump’s rhetoric, dozens of predominantly white Republican Trump supporters knocked on the doors and windows of the vote counting center, chanting: “Stop the count!”

But Detroit's poll employees, most of them black, were capable of count the votes. 95% of voters in Detroitthe biggest city in Michigan and the one with probably the most African-Americans – 78% of residents – solid their vote for Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate.

We are Political Science And sociology Professors at Wayne State University in Detroit, where we teach in regards to the relationship between race, religion and politics. Our research has identified two groups of African-American voters in Detroit – one that may clearly support Kamala Harris, and one other whose votes she must win if she is to win in Michigan.

Celebration in Kamala's camp

The African Americans more than likely to vote for Harris in November 2024 are staunch Democrats who consider Trump would threaten the political progress of black people towards democracy.

Harris may also depend on members of Detroit nonprofit organizations similar to the NAACP, Black Greek organizations and religious communities linked to interest groups like for instance MOSESThe Michigan Welfare Law Organization and the Fannie Lou Hamer Political Action Committee.

But what about black employees and poor Detroiters who’ve less close ties to the Democratic Party and are less involved in grassroots organizations that advocate for his or her interests? These people don't all the time end up in presidential elections, but as recent history has shown, they may very well be key to winning in Michigan, a vital swing state.

Small differences in voter turnout are essential

While Detroit voters helped Biden win the state and the White House in 2020, that was not the case for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The difference was partly resulting from lower voter turnout.

In 2016 95% of Detroiters who voted In the presidential election, the Democratic candidate Clinton was chosen. She lost Michigan by 0.2% – lower than 11,000 votes.

One factor contributing to the several presidential election ends in Michigan between 2016 and 2020 was the lower voter turnout in Detroit in 2016 in comparison with 2020.

In 2016 Voter turnout in Detroit was 48.6% – in comparison with 50.88% in 2020. Detroit's higher voter turnout in 2020 helped Biden win Michigan by a margin in 2020. Margin of lower than 3%.

Let's assume that 2016 and 2020 are signposts for 2024. In this case, Harris' ability to win Michigan in November rests less on losing black voters to Trump than on her ability to motivate black voters in Detroit and across the state to go to the polls. This is crucial because African Americans, about 13% of US votersoverwhelmingly vote for the Democrats of their elections.

In some ways, 2020 was a referendum on Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 epidemic, which has had a disproportionate impact on black Americans who almost twice as likely than white Americans die from the virus.

This election also served as a referendum on Trump’s racial policies. In the summer of 2020, when the nation was embroiled in protests against anti-black police violence, Trump portrayed the protesters as Anti-Americans and criminals.

It is smart, then, that in 2020, the overwhelming majority—over 90%—of African Americans nationwide said that Concerns about racism and COVID-19 motivated her voice.

Looking ahead to the 2024 elections, the query is: Will black voter turnout in Detroit be closer to that of 2016 or 2020?

Quality of life issues in focus in 2024

As of early 2024, quality of life concerns related to crime, vacant buildings and reasonably priced housing were the highest three issues Detroit residents want from their city and the U.S. government. based on the Detroit Metro Area Communities Study.

A survey by Suffolk University and USA Today in August 2024 found that About 6 out of 10 black voters in Michigan They cited rising living costs, crime and health care as reasons for his or her willingness to vote.

These same issues are top of mind for black voters across the country. A February 2024 Kaiser Family Foundation poll found that over 90% of black Americans think presidential candidates should discuss the rising cost of living and health care, and three-quarters think they need to discuss protecting the Affordable Care Act.

The 2024 elections are a vital moment to handle these issues.

Detroit's ongoing water concerns

For working-class and low-income residents of Detroit, water costs are a key cost-of-living issue.

As Detroit City Council attempted to repair its funds following its bankruptcy in 2013, it began to more aggressively goal residents who were behind on their water bills. The city cut off water from greater than 141,000 inhabitants between 2013 and 2020.

By 2023, 27% of Detroit households – about 170,000 people – are vulnerable to having their water shut off resulting from unpaid water billsThe 60,000 individuals who haven’t paid their water bills owe a mean of $700.

In response to this crisis, local grassroots organizations, a lot of them religiously based, similar to the Michigan Welfare Law OrganizationCommunity members organized to push for laws that may tie water bills to residents’ income.

In October 2023, Michigan Democrat State Senator Stephanie Chang introduced quite a few bills to attain just that, however the Bills have been left behind within the Senate Committee on Housing and Social Services.

A survey we conducted within the Detroit metropolitan area in April 2024 found that 87% of black Detroiters support these bills to enhance water affordability.

Harris' ability to attain similarly high black turnout in Michigan, particularly Detroit, as she did in 2020 could rely on whether she will articulate the federal government's plans to handle cost-of-living issues, including securing federal grants for cities like Detroit to subsidize water rates for working-class and low-income residents.

Harris didn’t explicitly address the difficulty of water affordability in her speech. Visiting Detroit on Labor Dayshe told the audience that, unlike Trump, she wouldn’t impose a national sales tax on on a regular basis items. She also promised to maintain prescription drug prices reasonably priced and strengthen the Affordable Care Act.

Will Harris' message that the price of living for Detroit residents would worsen under a Trump administration be enough to motivate black Detroit residents to vote for her?

This is a vital query for her 2024 campaign in Michigan, where she and Trump are in a statistical tie amongst likely voters.