Wild week at Intel leaves Wall Street uncertain concerning the chipmaker’s future

It was quite per week for Intel.

The chipmaker, which has lost greater than half its value this 12 months and had its worst trading day in 50 years last month after a disappointing quarterly report, began the week on Monday by announcing that it could split off its manufacturing division from its core business of developing and selling computer processors.

And late Friday, CNBC confirmed that Qualcomm recently approached Intel about an acquisition. It could be considered one of the most important tech deals ever. It's not clear whether Intel has held talks with Qualcomm, and representatives from each firms declined to comment. The Wall Street Journal was the primary to report on the matter.

The stock rose 11% in the course of the week, its best performance since November.

The rally is hardly a relief for CEO Pat Gelsinger, who has had a rough run since taking office in 2021. The 56-year-old company lost its long-standing title because the world's largest chipmaker and was ranked second in artificial intelligence chips by NVIDIAwhich is now valued at nearly $3 trillion, greater than 30 times Intel's market capitalization of just over $90 billion. Intel announced in August that it could cut 15,000 jobs, or greater than 15% of its workforce.

But Gelsinger remains to be in charge, saying Intel is currently moving forward as an independent company and has no plans to spin off the foundry. memo In an interview with employees on Monday, he said the 2 halves were “better together,” whilst the corporate is within the means of establishing a separate internal unit for the foundry, with its own board and management structure, in addition to the flexibility to boost external capital.

For the corporate that brought chips to Silicon Valley, the road to recovery just isn’t getting any easier. By moving forward as a closed company, Intel must overcome two huge hurdles without delay: greater than 100 billion US dollars by 2029 to construct chip factories in 4 different states while participating within the AI ​​boom that’s shaping the longer term of technology.

Intel expects to spend about $25 billion on its manufacturing facilities this 12 months and $21.5 billion next 12 months. The company hopes that becoming a domestic manufacturer will persuade U.S. chipmakers to source their production domestically moderately than counting on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Samsung.

This prospect could be more palatable to Wall Street if Intel's core business was at its peak. But while Intel still makes nearly all of processors for PCs, laptops and servers, the corporate is losing market share to Advanced micro devices and reports a decline in sales that’s jeopardizing its money flow.

“Next phase of this foundry journey”

In view of the increasing challenges, the Board of Directors met last weekend to debate the corporate's strategy.

The announcement of the brand new governance structure for the foundry business on Monday was a primary step in convincing investors that serious changes are afoot as the corporate prepares to launch its manufacturing process, called 18A, next 12 months. Intel said it has seven products in development and landed an enormous customer, and announced that Amazon would use its foundry to supply a network chip.

“It was very important to say we're entering the next phase of this foundry journey,” Gelsinger said in an interview with CNBC's Jon Fortt. “As we enter this next phase, it's much more about creating efficiencies and making sure we get a good return for shareholders on these significant investments.”

Still, Gelsinger's investment within the foundry will take years to repay. Intel said within the memo that it doesn't expect significant sales to outside customers until 2027. And the corporate may also pause its manufacturing efforts in Poland and Germany “for approximately two years due to expected market demand” and withdraw its plans for its Malaysian factory.

TSMC is the enormous within the chip factory world, producing for firms like Nvidia, Apple and Qualcomm. Its technology enables fabless firms – those who outsource production – to supply more powerful and efficient chips than are currently possible in large quantities at Intel's factories. Even Intel uses TSMC for a few of its high-end PC processors.

Intel has not yet announced a significant traditional American semiconductor customer for its foundry, but Gelsinger said to remain tuned.

“Some customers are reluctant to reveal their names because of competitive dynamics,” Gelsinger told Fortt. “But we have seen a significant increase in customer activity.”

Before Amazon’s announcement Microsoft said Earlier this 12 months, the corporate was seeking to hire Intel Foundry to supply custom chips for its cloud services, a deal that would earn Intel $15 billion. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said in February that the corporate would hire Intel to supply a chip, but didn’t provide details. Intel has also signed a take care of MediaTek, which mainly makes low-end chips for mobile phones.

Supported by the federal government

Intel's biggest advocate for the time being is the US government, which is making great efforts to secure chip supplies from the US and reduce the country's dependence on Taiwan.

Intel announced this week that it had received $3 billion to construct chips for the military and intelligence agencies at a special facility called the “Secure Enclave.” The program is assessed, so Intel didn’t disclose details. Gelsinger also recently met with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who has been a vocal advocate for Intel's future role in chip production.

Earlier this 12 months, Intel received as much as $8.5 billion in funding from the Biden administration under the CHIPS Act and will receive an extra $11 billion in loans through laws passed in 2022. However, the funds haven’t yet been disbursed.

“Ultimately, I think policymakers want a thriving semiconductor industry in America,” says Anthony Rapa, a partner at Blank Rome, a law firm specializing in international trade.

Currently, Intel itself is its largest foundry customer. The company began disclosing its division's funds this 12 months. In the last quarter, which resulted in June, it reported an operating lack of $2.8 billion on revenue of $4.3 billion. Only $77 million of the revenue got here from external customers.

Intel has set a goal of generating $15 billion in external revenue from the foundry industry by 2030.

While this week's announcement was seen by some analysts as step one toward a sale or spin-off, Gelsinger said it was intended partially to draw latest customers who could also be concerned about their mental property migrating out of the foundry and into Intel's other businesses.

“Intel believes this will provide clearer separation to third-party foundry customers/suppliers,” JPMorgan Chase analysts, who rate the stock with a sell rating, wrote in a report. “We believe this could ultimately lead to a spin-off of the business over the next few years.”

No matter what happens on that side of the home, Intel needs to search out an answer for its core business, Core PC chips and Xeon server chips.

Intel's client computing group – the PC chip division – reported a revenue decline of about 25% from its peak in 2020 to last 12 months. The data center division saw a 40% decline during that period. Server chip volumes fell 37% in 2023, while the price of creating a server product rose.

Intel has added AI chips to its processors to spice up sales of latest PCs, however it still lacks a robust AI chip competitor to Nvidia's GPUs, which dominate the info center market. Daniel Newman of the Futurum Group estimates that Intel's AI accelerator Gaudi 3 contributed only about $500 million to the corporate's revenue last 12 months, in comparison with Nvidia's $47.5 billion in data center revenue last fiscal 12 months.

Like many Intel investors, Newman asks the identical query: What's next for the corporate?

“When you break those two things down, you ask yourself, 'What else do they do best? Do they have the best process? Do they have the best design?'” he said. “I think part of their strength was that they could do everything.”

REGARD: CNBC's full interview with Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger

Watch CNBC's full interview with Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger

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