Can Dave Aranda recuperate from Baylor's last-second collapse against Colorado?

Nearly three years ago, with a conference title on the road, Baylor's defense was a wall of silence.

In the ultimate minute of the 2021 Big 12 Championship Game, Oklahoma State had 4 attempts to realize 2 yards and rating a touchdown to take the lead. The Bears allowed just 1 3/4 and Baylor won the Big 12 crown in coach Dave Aranda's second season.

On Saturday night in Colorado, Baylor needed one other game-winning stop in the ultimate minute with less on the road (the teams' opening game within the Big 12) and so much more room to play: 45 yards to defend and just two seconds for the Buffaloes to cover. But in a scene paying homage to that of Kordell Stewart and Michael Westbrook 30 years ago, Shedeur Sanders and LaJohntay Wester pulled off a miracle that sent the sport into additional time, where the Buffaloes eventually won 38-31.

These two finals, 33 months apart, highlight how far Baylor has fallen from its peak under Aranda, who now has a 25-27 record with this system.

“I have never seen the game at the end of regular time,” Aranda told reporters.

This could be a spontaneous postgame exaggeration, however the Bears executed their defensive plan so poorly that it was reasonable to assume Aranda had never seen a game-winning Hail Mary.

Aranda was once the highest-paid assistant in college football, revered for his defensive genius. In his fifth yr as head coach, he began the season on a rough patch, and the Bears' crushing loss to Colorado looks like a possible turning point. Can he bounce back?

Since the 2021 season, when Baylor went 12-2 with the Big 12 title and a Sugar Bowl win, this system is 11-18. The offensive and defensive teams have modified, which has been a difficulty during Aranda's tenure.

After this system appeared to hit all-time low last yr with a 3-9 record, Aranda vowed to make more changes. He would focus more on the transfer portal, place more emphasis on name, image and likeness compensation and establish himself as a playmaker on defense for the primary time since becoming LSU's defensive coordinator in 2019.

The first three weeks of the season showed lots of promise. The Bears looked more talented and played with a grit they looked as if it would lack last yr, and Aranda's switch to a more lively defense worked well.

Even against Colorado, there have been encouraging signs. Sanders had eight sacks and plenty of more pressures, a few of which got here from Steve Linton, who transferred from Texas Tech. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson and receivers Monaray Baldwin and Hal Presley had great offensive plays. The entire team exuded a competence that was often absent a yr ago.

But the way by which Baylor lost on Saturday was embarrassing. The Bears gave up a 24-10 lead and wasted several opportunities to tie the sport in regulation time.

After back-to-back sacks by Sanders led to a punt on fourth-and-31, Baylor — which led 31-24 with 3:58 left — took control on the Colorado 26-yard line with a likelihood to take a two-point lead. The Bears ran the ball thrice and settled for a 46-yard field goal attempt by Isaiah Hankins that went wide right with 2:16 left.

On Colorado's final drive of the fourth quarter, Baylor had the Buffaloes in trouble once they faced a second-and-24 at their very own 31-yard line with 55 seconds left. But the Bears gave up all of those yards on the subsequent three plays and kept the Buffs alive.

And before Wester's catch to tie the rating, Colorado had flirted with a game-winning rating on the previous play when receiver Will Sheppard dropped a pass from Sanders on the 2-yard line after getting behind Baylor cornerback Caden Jenkins.

On Baylor's final defensive play of regulation, dubbed the “Victory Cigar” by Aranda, the Bears pressured Sanders, forcing him out of the pocket to the left before throwing the ball to Wester. Aranda detailed a missed project on the pressure that he said was “inexcusable” considering Baylor had taken a timeout to establish the defense before the play.

“I take full responsibility for that,” he said. “I have to be able to train better.”

Baylor fans in all places nodded in agreement. It is likely to be the Bears' most painful loss since September 11, 1999. That night, Baylor led UNLV 24-21 and had the ball with 20 seconds left and no timeouts by the Rebels. Instead of taking a knee, the Bears ran with the ball and dropped it; UNLV returned it for a 100-yard touchdown and won 27-24.

Instead of returning home with a positive 3-1 rating, Baylor will now need to recuperate from the emotional gut punch with less room for error on this extremely competitive league.

If Saturday's loss snaps a losing streak, it’ll be a 3rd straight yr of frustration for Baylor fans. The upcoming schedule is unforgiving. This weekend, Baylor hosts No. 22 BYU, which just dominated Kansas State, then back-to-back road games at No. 18 Iowa State and Texas Tech before heading back home to face No. 20 Oklahoma State to shut out October.

If the Bears don't bounce back quickly, Aranda's spot may very well be on fire come November. Although Baylor athletic director Mack Rhoades hasn't publicly specified a particular variety of wins for Aranda to survive the season, bowl appearances are a basic expectation. That was made that rather more difficult by Saturday's botched game at Folsom Field.

The season is way from over. Baylor (2-2) is just a 3rd of the best way through its schedule, and if the Bears can quickly rebound and pull out a win over the Cougars, it might go a great distance toward putting Saturday's nightmarish ending behind them. This yr's Big 12 will definitely be tough to navigate, with three of the highest 4 teams within the league's preseason poll losing their conference openers.

But there’s an urgency to flip the script. The 2021 Big 12 championship season is the outlier of the Aranda era. Baylor has had losing records in the opposite three years and is now 13-25 overall in yearly except 2021. The last time Baylor had consecutive winning seasons were the ultimate two years of the Matt Rhule era (2018 and 2019).

Baylor's leadership wants Aranda to succeed. He is well-liked throughout the constructing because he seems thoughtful and real. He isn’t the fire-breathing caricature that is commonly portrayed as a stereotype of a football coach. As a school coach, being nice should purchase you overtime, and that definitely helped Aranda this yr despite declining results.

Whether he gets one other will rely upon how Baylor responds to its latest debacle. The decision won't be made based on Saturday's result. But the way by which the Bears lost will definitely stand out if there’s any uncertainty in regards to the future when Rhoades weighs the choice at the top of the season.

After Saturday's loss, Aranda said the Bears would attempt to get their heart back on top of things and called the loss a “big wake-up call.”

“I know we will respond,” he said. “I know this team. And I know we will come out stronger because of it.”

If they wish to win one other trophy of any kind under Aranda, they higher do it.