Lebanese civilians are fleeing the south because they fear an Israeli invasion – a glance back to 1982 shows that they’ve every reason to fret

Lebanese families were Escape from the south of the country by the 1000’s amid escalating tensions and an Israeli bombardment that Hundreds killed thus far.

Their fear, which also many spectatorsis that Israel will accompany the air strikes with something that might potentially have even worse consequences: a Ground invasion of southern Lebanon.

From the Israeli government's perspective, the rationale for such a move is that a ground offensive might be its best likelihood of pushing back the Hezbollah fighters. beyond the Litani River in the midst of the country. This would achieve an Israeli war aim, namely securing the northern borders and enabling a estimated 60,000 inhabitants who were forced to flee northern Israel to return to their homes.

Regardless of the motive, a ground invasion and possible occupation is greater than just wild speculation. Israel has Thousands of soldiers placed on standby In such a case, a station near the Lebanese border is planned.

And such a step is kind of unprecedented.

As Scholar of Lebanese historyI do know that Israel and Lebanon have been here before. 1982 Israel invaded Lebanon in the midst of the civil war by laying siege to the capital Beirut. The consequences were catastrophic for the whole regionThe ground offensive not only resulted within the deaths of 1000’s of civilians, the occupation of Lebanon plunged an already fragile country into ongoing political and economic chaos and led to Birth of Hezbollahprecisely the group that’s threatening northern Israel today.

Refuge and armed resistance

The Israeli invasion of Lebanon in June 1982 had its roots within the Palestinian-Israeli conflictmuch like what is going on today with the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel.

For the Palestinians, the founding of the State of Israel in 1948 was accompanied by the Nakba, the “catastrophe.” In the violent birth pangs of a Jewish state on a land inhabited, amongst others, by Arab populations with deep, ancient ties to villages, greater than 750,000 Palestinians were displaced or fled.

Many refugees reached Lebanon, where in 1964 the Palestine Liberation Organization was born. By the mid-Seventies, the armed resistance group had over 20,000 fighters who actively participated in carrying out attacks on Israel from Lebanese soil.

In 1982, Lebanon was already seven years after the beginning of the civil warwhich led to outbreaks of violence between Lebanese Christians and Lebanese and Palestinian Muslims. On June 6, 1982, Israeli Defense Minister Ariel Sharon, a future leader of the country, Operation Peace for Galilee and invaded Lebanon to destroy the PLO.

More than 40,000 Israeli soldiers with a whole bunch of tanks They entered Lebanon from three points: by land across the border into southern Lebanon, by sea from the coast of Sidon, and by air as Israeli forces bombed the Bekaa Valley, Beirut, and Palestinian refugee camps.

Beirut was under siege for 2 months, with water and electricity cut off. As a results of the heavy bombardment and the shortage of access to basic necessities, an estimated 19,000 Lebanese, Syrians and Palestinians Civilians and combatants died, of which 5,500 were civilians from West Beirut.

The Lebanese authorities appealed to the United States, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. These countries formed the multinational peacekeeping forcewhose aim was to revive peace in Lebanon, assist the Lebanese armed forces and evacuate PLO fighters to Tunisia.

By August 1982, the multinational force had successfully dislodged PLO fighters and commenced withdrawing from Lebanon, but they were recalled when violence flared up again.

After the murder of the Lebanese President-elect Bashir Gemayel On 14 September 1982, Christian Phalangist militias entered the 2 Palestinian refugee camps of Sabra and Shatila and killed over 2,000 Palestinian civilians. The Israeli government later arrange the Kahan Commission of Inquiry to research the killings, which concluded that Israel indirectly chargeable for the massacres.

The birth of Hezbollah

This story continues to be relevant to the present situation within the region today. Israel's invasion and occupation of Lebanon, the siege of Beirut and the massacres that followed led to the birth of Hezbollah.

While members of the marginalized Shiite community in southern Lebanon had long sought to mobilize themselves through pan-Arab political parties and militias, it was the Israeli invasion that prompted members of the community to In 1985 he finally founded Hezbollah. As a former Israeli Defense Minister and Prime Minister Ehud Barak In a 2006 interview, he noted: “It was our presence there that gave rise to Hezbollah.”

The Israeli invasion also strained Lebanon’s relations with the West. Many Lebanese and Palestinian Muslims viewed the multinational force as especially the United States – as a failure and whilst an accomplice of Israel.

From 1982 onwards, Americans and other Westerners became targets. In the next decade greater than 80 Americans and Europeans were taken hostage by Hezbollah fighters. Some were tortured for months; others died in custody.

And further October 23, 1983A terrorist attack targeted the American barracks in Beirut, killing over 300 people, including 220 Marines, 18 sailors and three soldiers. Minutes later, a second suicide attack killed 58 French paratroopers. Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the 2 attacks; a few of its members are said to be amongst those that Hezbollah was officially founded in February 1985.

Supporting Hezbollah in recruiting

Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982 didn’t achieve its goals to curb attacks on Israel from southern Lebanon. Rather, it had the other effect, turning many Lebanese against Israel and creating conditions under which Hezbollah could recruit recent people.

Although Israel withdrew from Beirut in August 1982, it occupied southern Lebanon until 2000. During this era, many Lebanese suspected of resisting the Israeli occupation were unlawfully detained. Some were imprisoned for free of charge. inhumane conditionswhile others were illegally transferred to Israel.

Against this background, Hezbollah’s legitimacy grew within the eyes of many Lebanese – in addition to his supportSo much in order that in 1989, at the tip of the Lebanese civil war, the authorities signed an agreement that, while in a roundabout way referring to Hezbollah, affirmed Lebanon’s right to Resistance to the Israeli occupation within the south.

This clause was interpreted by Hezbollah as a legitimization of its armed struggle against the occupation.

After the tip of the occupation in 2000, Hezbollah needed to reinvent its role, claiming that it might proceed the fight against Israel until the disputed territories were liberated. Shebaa Farmsthe Golan Heights and occupied Palestine.

In 2006, Hezbollah entered Israeli territory for the primary time, killing three soldiers and kidnapping two. In return, it demanded the discharge of Lebanese prisoners. In retaliation The Israel Defense Forces attacked Lebanon from the air, sea and landIsraeli ground troops entered Lebanon and carried out a series of operations on Lebanese territory. In a subsequent war, no such prisoner exchange took place, however the war ended with the deaths of about 1,100 Lebanese civilians and 120 Israelis, mainly soldiers.

Is history repeating itself?

Until Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 There were hopes that a long time of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel could also be about to show. In October 2022, Lebanon and Israel signed a US-mediated maritime border agreement – which is interpreted as the start of a normalization of relations between two countries which might be technically at war.

But the dimensions of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the following events in Lebanon have dashed these hopes in the interim. Expression of solidarity with Hamas has led to a series of mutual attacks on Israel which have escalated over the past yr.

The Attack with booby-trapped pagers which targeted Hezbollah fighters and killed several civilians in Lebanon on September 17, 2024, triggered a sequence of events that has now almost 500 Lebanese killed and Hezbollah are expanding the geographical scope of their rocket attacks on Israel. Long-range missiles can reach a variety of 250 to 300 kilometers (155 to 186 miles) and has reached Haifa and the Ramat David air base there.

The next step on this deadly escalation could well be a ground offensive. But in 1982, such an operation had only catastrophic consequences for all involved – and set the stage for a long time of hostilities on the Lebanese-Israeli border. The same offensive today would almost actually have similar consequences – especially for the people of Lebanon.