“Swift Swings” takes a fast have a look at an economic trend.
The number: The Californian consumer Confidence made a serious turnaround in September, rising to its highest level since February 2023 – a major improvement in comparison with the gloomy national outlook.
The source: In my trusty spreadsheet, I checked out the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which tracks the psyche of shoppers through surveys in eight states, including California, and nationally.
The curve
Confidence in California rose 25% in September, the 14th-largest monthly increase since 2007. Revised August data showed the bottom national optimism since July 2022.
The September increase brings this index up 10% in a 12 months. It can be now 1% above the 2015-2019 average – an inexpensive measure of pre-pandemic normality.
Why the uptick? Well, Golden State residents said within the survey that they’re feeling a lot better concerning the current state of the economy. The “current state” index rating is up 32% in a month. It was last higher 13 months ago. Still, the massive increase means it has been stagnant for the past 12 months, down 1% in comparison with 2015-19.
And the longer term also looks rosier based on this Californian calculation.
The “expectations” index reached a 30-month high after rising 18 percent within the previous month, 22 percent year-on-year and 4 percent in comparison with 2015-2019.
Details
This is certainly one among those California things.
At the national level, confidence fell 7% in September – the largest monthly drop in three years. That left the index down 5% in a 12 months and 14% below its 2015-19 reading.
And the seven other countries we tracked? There were no gains in September. Look on the declines over the course of the month, from worst to worst…
Pennsylvania: It was down 18% month-on-month, 13% year-on-year and 34% in comparison with 2015-19.
New York: Down 14% month-on-month, down 11% year-on-year, 2% lower than 2015-19.
Michigan: Down 10% month-on-month, down 12% year-on-year, down 15% in comparison with 2015-19.
Florida: 8% lower monthly, 12% lower annual, 20% lower than 2015–19.
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Texas: 5% lower monthly, 15% higher year-on-year, 14% lower than 2015-19.
Ohio: 5% lower monthly, 8% lower annual, 5% lower than 2015–19.
Illinois: Down 4% month-on-month, down 11% year-on-year, up 2% in comparison with 2015-19.
The Spin
Why? Perhaps it's because California's job market is growing faster than the remaining of the country, making locals feel higher about their funds.
And the high real estate prices within the Golden State make rates of interest a giant monetary factor. Has the hope of significantly cheaper mortgages made a difference?
Jonathan Lansner is a business columnist for the Southern California News Group. Reach him at jlansner@scng.com.
image credit : www.mercurynews.com