Post-election violence is feasible within the US, political scientists say – and it may very well be worse than on January sixth

Should Americans prepare for bloodshed if Donald Trump loses the 2024 presidential election?

As Political scientist who studies American politicsI can well imagine a repeat of the Capitol rebel on January 6, 2021 – or worse – after the November presidential election.

Flashback to 2020

Four years ago, then-President Donald Trump and his surrogates angrily challenged the leads to an try and overturn his defeat within the 2020 presidential election. With 63 lawsuits, Trump and his surrogates sought to discredit or overrule vote counting, election processes, etc Certification standards in nine states.

None of those attempts were successful. Many were dismissed — often by Trump-appointed judges — as meritless before they even stood trial. Simply put, there may be no evidence of widespread fraud. Even a voter data expert hired by Trump concluded that the The 2020 election was not stolen.

The U.S. legal system agreed, showing that courts remain a vital bulwark protecting American democracy. But the legal system cannot prevent political violence through election denial, because the country soon learned.

It's Jan. 6, 2021, over 2,000 people stormed the United States Capitol to forcibly stop Congress from certifying the 2020 presidential election. Four people died And 138 cops were injured in the course of the riot, which just about resulted in damage $3 million in damages. Four officers who responded to the riot would accomplish that later kill themselves.

The mob was spurred, at the least partially, by Trump rousing speech at a rally in Washington, DC, earlier within the day. There, he repeated his claims that the 2020 election was “stolen by emboldened radical left Democrats” and warned the group about it approximately 53,000 that “if you don’t fight madly, you won’t have a country anymore.”

Many legal scholars considered this to be sedition.

“He clearly knew that there were people in that crowd who were willing and intent on being violent,” said legal scholar Garrett Epps told the BBC. “Not only did he do nothing to prevent this, he clearly indicated that it should happen.”

Trump: A sore loser… and a winner

Trump has an extended history of denying the outcomes of any contest whose end result he doesn't like.

Before Trump entered the political arena, he called the 2012 Emmys “dishonest” because his show “The Apprentice” didn't win. In 2012, he dismissed then-President Barack Obama's re-election as a “complete sham.” questioned the accuracy of vote counts and voting machines. Trump unleashed a flurry of tweets calling on residents to fight “with all their might” against a “disgusting injustice.”

As a presidential candidate in 2016, Trump called the Republican primary fraudulent after his rival Sen. Ted Cruz won in Iowa, tweeting that the Texan “stole it.”

Ultimately, Trump won the 2016 Republican primary and national presidential race against Hillary Clinton. Yet he falsely claimed that he had only lost the favored vote – Trump fell 2 million wanting Clinton's 65.8 million votes – due to Mass voting amongst illegal immigrants.

Attack on the 2024 election

Trump has doubled down on his vote denialism this election cycle. The New York Times had documented it by May 2024 550 such statementsup from about 100 in the complete 2020 campaign.

I proceed to insist Trump predicts that the 2020 election was “rigged.” Repeat in 2024.

This narrative of pervasive victimization has been reinforced by a flood of lawsuits and criminal investigations against the previous president. State and federal prosecutors have been bringing charges against Trump since 2020 94 crimesincluding business fraud, misuse of confidential documents and interference within the federal election.

He was convicted in New York 34 cases of corporate fraud and located liable sexual abuse in a civil case by the creator E. Jean Carroll.

Trump has portrayed these legal challenges as a deliberate effort by President Joe Biden interfere within the 2024 election over 350 times.

“My legal matters, all civil and criminal, are all handled by Joe Biden.” Trump told a crowd in New York City in January 2024. “They’re doing it because of election interference.”

His deputies reinforce this message. For example, on June 6, 2024, Mike Howell, director of the Right-wing Heritage Foundation's Oversight Project, announced at a public event in Washington that there was a “0% likelihood of a free and fair election.”

From denial to violence: warning signs

Lying about election results isn’t only a tantrum. It's a cornerstone of Trump's technique to portray himself as a victim of an elite deep state – a picture that appeals to his base, particularly amongst white working-class voters, a few of whom feel they’re They are themselves victims of globalization and shadow elites.

This strategy works.

A September 2023 survey by the independent opinion research institute PRRI showed that 32% of Americans imagine the 2020 election was stolen. Even though the query has been studied extensively and dismissed by the courts, many American residents simply don’t imagine it under any circumstances Trump can lose in a good election.

This fact, combined with other statistics from the identical survey, explains why I imagine one other January sixth is feasible.

About 23% of Americans and 33% of Republicans imagine that “true American patriots may have to resort to violence to save our country” – a 5% increase amongst Republicans and eight% amongst most people since 2021.

75% of Americans now imagine that American democracy is in danger within the 2024 election. That is perhaps value fighting for, too – especially when there are 39% of Trump supporters and 42% of Biden supporters Report that you’ve gotten no friends who support the opposing candidate. When people don't trust or socialize with people who find themselves different from them, Intergroup violence is more likely.

I fear that little might be done to forestall such violence.

In 2022, Congress approved the bill in a rare bipartisan move Voter Count Reform and Transition Improvement Act of 2022which closed many doors that President Trump tried to make use of to overturn the 2020 election. But as history shows, the rule of law isn’t a surefire protection against violence.

With the election at stake for many Americans and Trump's increasingly inflammatory rhetoric, it is difficult to assume that January 6, 2021 was an isolated chapter in American history.

In fact, it may need just been foreplay.