Economic woes from inflation appear to have accelerated a shift amongst Latino voters toward Republicans, cutting Democrats' lead with a critical group of voters in half ahead of a detailed presidential election, in keeping with an NBC/CNBC/Telemundo poll.
The poll of 1,000 registered Latino voters showed the Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, leading the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, 54% to 40%. That's significantly lower than the 36-point lead that President Joe Biden had leading as much as the 2020 election. Biden's lead was almost half the 50-point lead Hillary Clinton had over Trump in 2016, reflecting a longer-term trend that shows Latinos are within the Democratic camp, but in declining numbers.
“There is an intensity to these issues that is quite striking,” said Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, senior vice chairman at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey. “The cost of living and inflation are really what inform a lot of the way people think about the economy and the economic future of the country.”
The survey was conducted September 15-23 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Harris' 14-point lead is the narrowest lead by a Democratic candidate amongst Latino voters surveyed in not less than the last 4 elections, dating back to 2012. The poll also found that 54% to 42% of Latinos favor Democratic control of Congress, the Democrats' smallest margin since 2012. That suggests a shift that might be broader than simply the presidential election.
“The data in this poll is not a flash in the pan,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, who served because the Republican pollster for the survey. “It is a continuation of a steep and massive shift in the political identity of one of the most important groups of voters in America.”
Harris has a robust lead amongst respondents in terms of questions of character: Latino voters surveyed consider she is healthier able to answer their needs by a ratio of two to at least one; 48% rated Harris favorably, in comparison with 32% for Trump; And on the query of who has the fitting temperament for the office of president and who’s more trustworthy, competent and effective, she was ahead of Trump by around 20 or more points.
However, the survey shows that inflation and the price of living are the 2 biggest issues facing Latinos, together with jobs and the economy, mirroring surveys of the broader population. Trump leads Harris on each counts, with a 46% to 37% lead over Harris on who is healthier at handling inflation and a forty five% to 41% lead on handling the economy.
Harris has a 39-point lead on the query of who could be best placed to humanely treat immigrants and protect immigrants' rights, a 32-point lead on the abortion issue, and even a 5-point lead on crime. Harris' dominance on these questions underscores the importance of the economy and inflation in explaining Trump's gains amongst Latinos on this poll in comparison with 2020.
Harris' lead over Trump narrowed significantly amongst younger voters ages 18 to 34, who favor the Democratic candidate by just 10 points, in comparison with 44 points in 2020. Trump and Harris are tied 47/47 amongst Latino men tied, a bunch that Biden leads by 17 points within the polls leading as much as the 2020 election. The Democratic lead amongst Latino women is a large 26 points, but that's about half the lead Biden had in 2020.
All of those groups rate the economy poorly, with Latino voters overall viewing the economy about as negatively as the remaining of the country. Just 23% rate the present economic situation as excellent or good, while 77% rate the economy as fair or poor, nearly matching the outcomes for all voters in August's CNBC All-America Economic Survey. This is a possible problem for Democrats because Latinos are fairly reliable Democratic voters and look nothing like Democrats on the economic issue. In the CNBC poll, 42% of Democrats rated the economy as excellent or good, in comparison with 23% of Latinos in that poll. 65% of Latinos say their wages are lagging behind inflation. While that's roughly in step with the remaining of the population, it's 11 points higher than the NBC 2022 Latino survey. Younger Latino women and adults say they’re hit hardest by the upper prices.
Among those that say they’re falling behind, 48% say the largest impact is attributable to the price of food, 34% point to rent and mortgage, and 10% point to rising healthcare costs.
While Latinos have widely various views on immigration, it’s ranked only the fourth most significant area of concern, far behind inflation, jobs and even threats to democracy. The poll found that 62% of respondents consider immigration helps the country greater than it hurts, while 35% say the alternative. It is the bottom positive reading for Latino immigration since not less than 2006.
According to the poll, Trump leads Harris 47 points to 34 on the query of who can higher secure the border and control immigration.
A modest majority of 52% of Latino voters said it was more vital to supply immigrants with a path to citizenship and stop discrimination, while 47% said it was more vital to secure the border and stop immigrants from entering illegally.
Still, 91% support making a path for undocumented spouses to realize citizenship, and 87% support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants brought here as children.
Here is a demographic profile of Latino voters from the NBC/CNBC/Telemundo poll:
- 52% say they primarily speak English, while the rest say they speak only Spanish or each.
- 56% trace their family ancestry to Mexico; 16% to Puerto Rico; 11% to Spain; 5% to Cuba; 5% to the Dominican Republic.
- 49% discover as Democrats, 37% as Republicans and 13% as Independents.
- 32% say they’re liberal; 37% are moderate; 29% are conservative.
- 49% are Catholic, 21% are Protestant, 28% are other/none.
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