Editor's Note: The following column consists of two parts. The bottom section, the body of the column, was written by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman on Tuesday morning, before Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel. After the attack began, Friedman filed the update in italics above.
•••
As predicted below, Iran fired greater than 100 ballistic missiles into Israel starting at roughly 12:30 p.m. Eastern Time. The Israeli missile defense system shot down just about all of them, Israeli sources said, and although there was some damage, the attack was not considered particularly successful. There are currently no reports of major losses.
According to Israeli sources, the attack was carried out by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Air Force and was not an operation by the regular Iranian army or air force. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was only informed of the attack shortly before it began, the sources said, suggesting that the Iranian regime is split over the operation, which is more likely to result in the rifts in the federal government.
Israel's ability to anticipate the Iranian attack and pinpoint the precise timing of the attack, and the indisputable fact that it was a Revolutionary Guard operation – and never the regular Iranian forces under the command of the brand new president – shows how deep The Mossad, Israel's Cyber Command, Unit 8200 and the Israeli Air Force have penetrated the Iranian regime and coordinated their defensive response. This signifies that no Iranian leader can trust the opposite anymore.
•••
We could also be on the verge of what might be probably the most dangerous moment within the history of the trendy Middle East: a ballistic missile war between Iran and Israel that may almost actually bring the United States on Israel's side and will culminate in all-out conflict. failed American-Israeli efforts to destroy Iran's nuclear program.
That's the assessment I got from conversations with Israeli intelligence sources, whose evaluation is that Iran plans to launch a missile attack on Israel at 12:30 p.m. Eastern Time, which is 7:30 p.m. in Israel. The attack will probably be planned in two waves, quarter-hour apart, and every wave will include 110 ballistic missiles, the Israelis said.
The Iranian missiles are aimed toward three targets. First, the headquarters of the Mossad, Israel's foreign secret service, near Tel Aviv. Secondly, Israel's Nevatim Air Base and thirdly, Israel's Khatzirim Air Base; Both bases are positioned in southern Israel within the Negev Desert. Israeli officials are particularly concerned a few possible attack on the Mossad headquarters since it is positioned within the densely populated northern Tel Aviv suburb of Ramat Hasharon. It can be not removed from Israel Defense Intelligence Headquarters, Unit 8200.
This information was shared with me since the Israelis insist that they are not looking for a large-scale ballistic war with Iran and wish the United States to try to discourage the Iranians by letting them know that in the event that they launch this missile attack, the… The United States is not going to be a bystander, and its response, unlike the Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel on April 13, is not going to be purely defensive. In other words, Iran could risk its entire nuclear program if this missile attack occurs.
I actually have not been in a position to speak to senior U.S. officials to gauge their response, but will provide updates as needed.
One might think that Israel is anticipating such a war with Iran in an effort to finally end its nuclear program and involve the United States. That's not my impression. A ballistic missile war could cause enormous damage to Israel's infrastructure unless virtually every missile is intercepted.
Could the Iranians be bluffing and intend to land the missiles in open areas in Israel? That is just not the impression the Israelis got from their intelligence services.
According to Israeli intelligence, the Iranian people, by and huge, are not looking for this war with Israel. There has long been discontent in Iran over the billions of dollars the regime has spent supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, at a time when Iran's infrastructure is in such disrepair and the country's economy is in shambles. The Israelis hope that the US can send a message to Iran that if the war begins and it leads to great destruction and the death of Iranian civilians, it could also trigger an rebellion against the regime.
Over the last 12 months, we've seen red lines being crossed left and right – from Hamas's brutal attack on Israel on October 7, to the Israeli pager attack on Hezbollah's leadership, to the assassination of its leader Hasan Nasrallah. The Iranians feel that their deterrence capability has weakened and they have to respond.
This is Code Red time. Because once you begin crossing red lines, all of them disappear.
Thomas L. Friedman is a columnist for The New York Times.
image credit : www.mercurynews.com