Why CNN is changing its poll for 2024

Overall, the polls for the 2020 presidential election were worse than they’ve been in 40 years.

No misfire was more noticeable this 12 months than CNN's. It is last survey Before the election, it was estimated that Joe Biden held one Landslide size A lead of 12 percentage points over then-President Donald Trump.

This figure was lower than in early October 2020, when CNN reported on Biden's case The lead was 16 points. Accordingly, no polling institute reported a bigger lead within the presidential race in 2020 RealClearPolitics compilation of polls this 12 months.

Biden won the favored vote by 4.5 points, which represented a big polling error for CNN and its survey partner SSRSa research firm in suburban Philadelphia.

Like I did in “Lost in a GallupIn my book on electoral failures in US presidential elections, polls conducted for CNN and other major corporate media outlets have “unsurpassed, if obvious, narrative-shaping effects.” The results of their polls are prominently exhibited to a large audience, thereby contributing to this media-sponsored surveys lay the inspiration for the election campaign.

“When these pollsters speak, the public listens,” says one veteran pollster David Moore has said. The compelling editorial CNN reported on Biden in 2020 “was clearly part of the ongoing narrative,” Moore added.

Like pollster Mark Penn identified After the election, polls showing a ten to 12 point lead in Biden's favor “equivalent to a landslide of about 40 states – a result that at first glance should have been dismissed as impossible.”

The 2020 presidential election was the third in a row by which CNN was off the mark in its final poll before Election Day.

In 2016, CNN estimated Hillary Clinton's Late campaign management amongst likely voters it was 6 percentage points; She won the favored vote by 2.1 points but lost the Electoral College to Trump. In 2012, CNN's most up-to-date primary poll showed the race was over stuck between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney; Obama won by almost 4 points.

“For me front and center”

Since the misfire of 2020, CNN has modified its survey methodologywhat may very well be a high-profile test case for election researchers this 12 months.

Pollsters have contacted a Variety of survey techniques — including online options — in an try to avoid further embarrassment in a presidential campaign.

Jennifer AgiestaCNN's director of polling and election evaluation has made it clear that the cable network is well aware of the risks facing pollsters this 12 months. In one Podcast interview last 12 months for the American Association for Public Opinion Research, a bastion On the polling front, Agiesta said the polls' “biggest challenge ahead” is their effectiveness in 2024.

“I think the public perception of what polls are and how they perform will be greatly influenced by how they perform in the 2024 election, whether accurate or not,” Agiesta said. “It’s definitely the focus for me.”

CNN continues to contract with SSRS to conduct its polls However, they’ve moved away from reaching potential respondents exclusively via cell phones and landlines. As recently as 2016, CNN's most up-to-date campaign survey included more landline respondents than those reached on cell phones.

CNN did this in its poll for this 12 months's presidential campaign respondents drawn from an SSRS panelThis is a big group of people who find themselves willing to take surveys once in a while. The panel is described as “probability basedThat means its members were chosen at random and all registered voters within the United States had roughly equal possibilities of being asked to participate. Respondents accomplished the CNN survey either online or by telephone.

Improved results for Trump

So far this 12 months, CNN polls within the presidential election campaign have been more generous for Trump than polls in 2020. CNN polls then consistently showed benefits for Biden.

In his latest presidential pollwhose results were released in late September, CNN said Vice President Kamala Harris was ahead of Trump amongst likely voters by a single percentage point.

The CNN national poll two months earlier reported that Trump led Harris amongst registered voters by 3 percentage points. CNN polls in June and April showed Trump leading Biden by six points. After a disastrous debate with Trump in late June, Biden the race was cancelled for re-election on July twenty first.

Of course, it's still too early to inform whether this 12 months's poll results indicate that CNN is finally on the precise track. Loads can change within the weeks before an election. Towards the top of the 2016 campaign, for instance, previously undecided voters in key swing states decided to support Trump's candidacy, thereby securing his victory within the Electoral College. in line with a report on behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR).

CNN poll director Agiesta, who ended his one-year term as AAPOR president in May, declined to be interviewed for this text.

But in a single sponsored by CNN discussion Ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, Agiesta addressed the query of whether the polls were accurate, saying, “I would like to believe they are.”

She said pollsters have taken “many, many steps to try to correct the mistakes that we've seen in past cycles,” adding: “I mean, in fact, the issues that plagued the 2016 and 2020 polls had made it very well-known.” . Everyone is aware that many polls in these two election cycles underestimated Republican support.”

Over her right shoulder within the office where she spoke hung a desk sign with the insistent inscription in capital letters: “ACCURACY FIRST!”