The Palestinians need to elect their very own leaders – a 12 months of war has taken them even further away from this democratic goal

As Israel continued to bomb Gaza over the summer, representatives of 14 Palestinian factions, including the 2 largest parties – Hamas and Fatah – met in China. After probably the most comprehensive talks in years, all parties are involved agreed to a future unity government and hold national elections.

Such talk of governance “the day after tomorrow” could seem fanciful as the present war marks its first anniversary. The idea of ​​holding Palestinian elections seems distant given the situation current destruction and humanitarian crisisespecially within the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, every democratic process, including Hamas, under whose leadership the Israel Defense Forces spent a 12 months attempt to eliminate after the group's attack on October 7, 2023 – could be vehemently rejected by Israel. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that 72% of Palestinians recently surveyed said this saw no hope that the provisions agreed in China might be implemented soon.

But the choice “day after tomorrow” plan for Gaza reconstruction pushed by the United States – “revitalizing“The Palestinian Authority, the Fatah-led body that partially governs parts of the West Bank, also appears to be a non-starter. Critics of this plan warn that simply reshuffling the prevailing numbers would further delegitimize the deeply unpopular authority.

As Scholar of Palestinian history and politicsI feel the discussion about reforming existing bodies or supporting a unity government made up of the identical actors misses a bigger point: it’s the Palestinians increasingly frustrated through their political representation; They want the power to elect their very own leaders.

Surveys showed this even before the October seventh attack The Palestinians were dissatisfied They viewed governance as corrupt and dysfunctional. And because the war drags on into its second 12 months… Latest surveys show that support for Hamas has declined barely; Still, support for its fundamental rival, Fatah, has only increased barely. More than a 3rd of those surveyed don’t support any party.

Shared leadership

Despite talk of a unity government, the Palestinian leadership is as bitterly divided because it has been for many years.

After a temporary conflict in 2007, the Palestinian Authority split in two. The secular Fatah party led by Mahmoud Abbas controlled power within the West Bank while its Islamist rival Hamas ruled in Gaza.

Since then, Palestinian representatives have held over a dozen reconciliation talks to attempt to bridge the gap, probably the most recent was in Beijing in July 2024. While several of those meetings have resulted in joint agreements, equivalent to the recent “Beijing Declaration”, none of them have resulted in closer cooperation between the varied factions.

The current president of the Palestinian Authority, 88-year-old Abbas, is especially unpopular. He was first unilaterally elected in 2005 for a four-year term prolonged his term of office in 2009 and declared that he would remain in office until the following election. But him didn’t allow elections has been going down since then. Summarizes the views of many, analyst Khaled Elgindy described Abbas today as “an unpredictable and narrow-minded authoritarian with a virtually uninterrupted track record of failure.”

That explains in accordance with a Survey from September 2024 According to a study by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, 84% of Palestinians within the West Bank and Gaza Strip want Abbas to resign.

When asked a couple of hypothetical presidential election between the leaders of Hamas and Fatah 45% of Palestinians reported They would reasonably just sit out the election. The query needed to be hypothetical – elections aren't even in sight yet. In fact, Palestinians within the West Bank or Gaza haven’t participated in presidential or parliamentary elections since 2006. And three quarters of Palestinians are going no prospect of elections anytime soon.

Absence of elections

Palestinians' pessimism about democratic participation of their government has increased lately. It has undoubtedly been further shaken by a 12 months of relentless Israeli bombing and internal political dysfunction.

A glimmer of hope for greater democratic representation emerged in January 2021, when Abbas announced that general elections could be held later this 12 months.

Many on the Candidate lists then were third parties and independents. The young Palestinians were particularly excited – half of them all eligible voters They would have been between 18 and 33 years old and it might have been their first opportunity to pick leaders who could claim to talk for them.

But lower than a month before election day, Abbas has postponed the vote for an indefinite period. While he blamed Israel for the shift, others blamed Palestinians also identified disruptions from Egypt and Jordan.

With no elections in sight, Palestinians have taken several grassroots initiatives to attempt to implement democratic reforms from the bottom up.

For example, in November 2022, a Palestinian People's Conference took place in several cities. It called for reform of Palestinian institutions to more democratically represent the 14 million Palestinians living world wide. Meetings were held in Gaza and Haifa, with Palestinians from world wide participating in person and virtually.

But Palestinian Authority troops within the West Bank violently crushed in regards to the meeting in Ramallah and several conference leaders arrested. The crackdown signaled to many who Abbas and the Palestinian Authority were scared of the emergence of another, democratically elected Palestinian leadership.

Maintain the occupation

Many Palestinians view Abbas and his government as “Puppet authority“, supported by Israel and the United States.

Despite its name, the body doesn’t have the “authority” that governments normally have. It cannot raise its own taxes, control its own borders, or protect its own residents. More like Israel collects taxes within the West Bank and decides when – and whether – they might be handed over to the Palestinian Authority. Israel must approve what goes out and in of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

And as has been shown throughout the present war, the Israeli military has a largely free hand enter “Area A”.the parts of the West Bank which can be presupposed to be under full security control of the Palestinian Authority.

But Palestinians within the West Bank are unable to even express their opposition to those measures. In recent years, the Palestinian Authority has turn out to be increasingly repressive and has arrested increasingly more Palestinians political reasons.

Furthermore, the Palestinian Authority has allowed Israel to accomplish that within the 12 months for the reason that October 7 attacks Arrest and imprisonment of over 7,000 Palestinians within the West Bank. Many are held and sentenced for months for gratis or trial widespread torture and sexual abusesaid the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem.

Therefore, many Palestinians view the Palestinian Authority as little greater than a “Subcontractors” of the Israeli occupation.

Looking ahead

So what does the “day after” the conflict seem like for Palestinians and their hopes for democratic political representation?

The recent ruling by the International Court of Justice that Israel Occupation is against the law and that settlers must withdraw from the West Bank has given additional legitimacy to the Palestinians' demand to finish the occupation once and for all.

But a future Palestinian government will only be credible if it represents the need of the people.

Given the continued Israeli occupation and widespread destruction in Gaza, it would definitely be difficult to carry Palestinian elections to realize this goal. But that's clear Elections are what the Palestinians want. When elections were last touted in 2021, 93.3% of those eligible to vote have registered – only to have their hopes dashed later.

On Reconciliation talks In Beijing, all 14 Palestinian parties agreed to “prepare as soon as possible to hold general elections under the supervision of the Palestinian Central Election Committee.”

While Israel, the US and regional actors Worry that elections could legitimize Hamas's rule over the Gaza Strip, that may not necessarily be the case. Only probably the most recent surveys show this 36% of respondents in Gaza said they preferred that consequence.

For now, many Palestinians Believe in step one It ought to be the formation of a national reconciliation government that may negotiate reconstruction.

But to have any probability of success, such a body would must be under Palestinian leadership. A government made up of the usual actors imposed on the Palestinians by the US or Israel would suffer from crippling legitimacy problems.

One thing is definite: the death and destruction of the past 12 months have shown that the old approaches to Palestinian politics didn’t work. Perhaps it’s time for a brand new approach that puts Palestinian representation at the middle.