Can Montana’s “last rural Democrat” survive one other election?

Jon Tester has never had it easy.

The three-term Democratic senator from Montana has received greater than 50% of the votes just once in his three runs for the U.S. Senate, a draw 50.3% of the vote in 2018 against State Auditor and future U.S. Representative Matt Rosendale.

This 12 months, Tester's at all times perilous path to re-election appears narrower and more harrowing than ever before. And the The end result could determine whether the Senate stays under Democratic control or hands over to Republicans.

Current polls and political forecasters are even starting to show against it moderate from the farming community of Big Sandy with the flattop haircut. Thirty-five Tester's opponent, former Navy SEAL and businessman Tim Sheehy, gained 4 percentage points, and the venerable Cook Political Report even went to this point as to say the race: “leans toward Republicans.”

For Montana State University Political scientist Jessi BennionThis election could mark the top of an era in rural America.

“I used to call Tester the unicorn candidate because there was no one like him,” she told my students a number of weeks ago. “He was a farmer, he was a rural Democrat, the last rural Democrat.”

The end of the unicorn?

I teach political reporting on the University of Montana School of Journalism, and each two years I send students out to interview candidates, racially profile, and confer with voters. It's true that the situation has modified, even since Tester won in 2018.

Despite the influx of outsiders during the last decade, Montana remains to be one sparsely populated state with 1.1 million inhabitants within the last census. Although the state has historically depending on mining and timber In much of the economy, recent economic activity in tourism and technology has helped the population increase by 10% within the last census.

But with this influx, Housing costs have skyrocketed And The same applies to property taxes. It also threatens one among Montana's political traditions.

You see, Montana has done something prior to now that only a few people do today – Ticket splittingwhen an individual votes for candidates from opposing parties in an election. It's hard to assume in a time of deep polarization, but out here within the Rocky Mountains and Northern Plains, voters would consistently vote for a Republican for president and infrequently for the Legislature as well. but in addition for the Democrat Jon Tester.

Tester was capable of assemble a coalition of voters within the Liberals' few factions—college towns like Missoula, union strongholds like Butte, and indigenous voters on the reservation—and filter out enough moderate voters in additional rural areas to realize electoral victories. When I moved here in 2009, it wasn't just Tester who did it. That's what Montana did back then a Democratic governor, Attorney General And Heads of faculties. But Over time, these statewide offices have all disappearedoften in double digits, to the Republicans.

No Democrat won statewide since Tester did it in 2018.

Migration and the March from Purple to Red

Then COVID-19 hit Montana.

The state experienced a rise in population, increase by almost 5% between 2020 and 2023and experts comparable to political scientists Jeremy Johnson I told my students earlier this fall that it was vital to know who these recent residents were.

“I still think the race can be competitive,” Johnson said. “I think some of my broader themes here – the polarization, the calcification, the reluctance to split tickets – make it harder for testers. I also think there is evidence that more Republican-leaning voters have moved to the state in recent years than Democratic-leaning voters.”

An evaluation reported by the Montana Free Press found that for each two Democrats who’ve moved to Montana since 2008, there have been three Republicans.

There is not any party registration in Montana. So whenever you vote in a primary, you receive a ballot for each parties and you select which party you should vote on. In the highly publicized US Senate primary this 12 monthsOnly 36% of primary voters voted within the Democratic primary, while 64% selected to vote within the Republican primary.

The only query mark of 2024

Ask Sen. Tester and he’ll say his campaign is much from over. He is emphasizes his independence from his political party, as Republican President Donald Trump signed bills he sponsored and be longstanding support of veterans because the cornerstone of his election campaign.

But his path to reelection could run directly through Roe vs. Wade.

Montana's Constitution was written in 1972and it has some pretty progressive elements, including a right to a clean environment and a express right to privacyversus the more implicit one within the US Constitution. And in 1999, the state Supreme Court said this The right to privacy included access to abortion.

Nevertheless, voters made the choice, partially to be certain that a later court decision couldn’t take away this right CI-128 is on the ballot this fallwhich might explicitly include protections for access to abortion within the state structure.

Tester hit the subject hard in his final debate with Sheehy on September 30, 2024.

“The bottom line is: whose decision should be made?” Tester said in the course of the debate. “Is it the federal government’s decision, the state government’s decision, Tim Sheehy’s decision, Jon Tester’s decision? No, it's the woman's decision. Tim Sheehy called abortion “horrible” and “murder.” It doesn’t sound to me like he would support the lady on this decision.”

Tester's supporters hope the initiative could encourage younger voters and moderate women to end up in droves this fall and that it could make Tester's path to re-election a little bit more feasible.

But it could take a little bit of unicorn magic for Tester to win a fourth term.

Back at Montana State University, Bennion said the situation looks pretty dire for Democrats in rural states.

“I don’t think a Democrat is going to win in the long run unless our state changes in a lot of different ways,” he said. “Exactly the way our state grows, the type of person who moves here and votes.”