1st check-up in October
We're halfway through the primary football season of this latest era, with the previous Pac-12 schools spread across three conferences and three,000 miles.
From a competitive perspective, the last seven weeks have been nothing wanting a disaster.
No, make this a Troy-gedy.
An absolute disappointment.
In other words, the outcomes are only as bad as these puns.
Two of the faculties leaving have losing records, and three are only .500.
It's entirely possible that just one, Oregon, will crack the AP Top 25 when the brand new poll is released Sunday morning.
Nowhere is the gloom more palpable than at USC, which has one way or the other already been eliminated from the College Football Playoff despite defeating LSU in its much-celebrated season opener.
Since then, the Trojans have lost three Big Ten games, each by default. They were outscored 27-10 by Penn State after halftime, 14-0 within the fourth quarter by Minnesota and 7-0 in the ultimate minute by Michigan.
As a result, USC fails to make the CFP field overall and is effectively eliminated from the conference championship game.
Get ready for 2 months of speculation about Lincoln Riley's job security, which is quickly becoming a good and reasonable topic considering he makes about $10 million annually and a decidedly mediocre one over the past season and a half brought the product onto the market.
However, Riley and Co. are a minimum of messing up their tracks on broadcast television and never on a regional cable network.
2. Should we proceed?
What in regards to the 2023 Pac-12 champion and national runner-up? I'm glad you asked.
Washington also has three losses, having been steamrolled at Iowa on Saturday morning, followed by a narrow loss at Rutgers (by a number of weeks) and an equally narrow loss to Washington State within the Apple Cup.
But there's way more to UW's predicament than simply the 4-3 record. The upcoming schedule features the Big Ten's best teams: Indiana, Oregon and Penn State, which have a combined record of 18-0. The Huskies play all three, meaning their advance to the postseason – which requires a minimum of six wins – shall be treacherous.
Of course, the Trojans and Huskies seem like playoff teams in comparison with UCLA, which lost its fifth straight game (to Minnesota) on Saturday and poses a serious threat for the ultimate spot within the Big Ten.
Without Purdue, the Bruins could be the highest seed within the basement. They appear woefully underprepared for his or her latest existence, have a troublesome schedule ahead of them and shall be lucky to win three games under rookie coach DeShaun Foster.
For Arizona, the situation isn't quite as dire. But the Wildcats, who finished the 2023 season with a seven-game winning streak, are reeling with a 3-3 record after suffering a decisive loss at Brigham Young on Saturday afternoon.
(Not on our Big 12 bingo card: Arizona wins at Utah by two touchdowns and loses at BYU by three.)
That brings us to the Utes, who were picked to win the Big 12 and reach the CFP. At the moment they’re closer to last place than first after losing to the last team actually picked, Arizona State.
Not surprisingly, the faculties which have joined the ACC are struggling.
Stanford is 2-4 overall, has lost three straight games by 92 points and desperately needs to enhance its quarterback play.
Cal made a giant splash with an early-season win at Auburn and the so-called Calgorithm taking on social media. But the Bears are 0-3 in conference play, losing by eight points overall.
3. Now for the caveats
It's not all doom and gloom on the sphere.
Oregon just beat Ohio State in a thriller Saturday night at Autzen Stadium to stay undefeated and en path to a playoff spot. The latest world order suits the Ducks quite well; They were much better positioned than USC, UCLA and Washington for immediate success within the Big Ten.
Plus, Arizona State is certainly one of the largest surprises of the season. The Sun Devils are in last place within the Big 12 and are 5-1 – and one game out of a bowl berth – after beating Utah on Friday night. (Speaking of fixing trajectories: ASU lost to the Utes by 52 points last season and beat them by eight points this weekend.)
And we should always mention Colorado's second-year surge under Deion Sanders. Despite losing to Kansas State late Saturday night, the Buffaloes (4-2) are on course to exceed the predictions.
However, the realignment is about greater than just the outcomes on the sphere in seven poor weeks. After all, the ten schools didn't simply resolve to desert the Pac-12 because they wanted tougher competition and more losses.
They did it for the cash and the media exposure, and people advantages remain.
Most of them appear commonly on major broadcast and cable networks. And there's no probability the checks will come through from the conference offices.
Anyone wondering whether there are feelings of regret at any of the ten locations needs to be told: Not a probability.
Our criticism of the on-field results over a seven-week period reflects only a snapshot of a fraction of a pixel of the larger canvas.
Schools are playing the long game, folks. And that’s the clever game, the sensible game.
4. To CFP or to not CFP
Still, we wonder if the competitive situation has been understated within the broader context of the conference's realignment.
Qualifying for the 12-team playoffs means every part in college football's latest universe, especially with the specter of a brilliant league hanging over the game.
Due to the present media contracts between the conferences and their network partners, this momentous step will probably take one other five to seven years to reach.
Therefore, the expanded playoffs needs to be seen not only as a giant stage for the varsity to market itself on in real time, but in addition as a backdrop for an audition. Playoff appearances and successes could secure a ticket to the upcoming exclusive world.
But for every eliminated Pac-12 school, the trail to the CFP in any given yr of their reconfigured conferences shall be harder than it might have been without the realignment moves.
The increased competition is already evident, as are the demands of cross-country travel on Big Ten and ACC schools.
5. Meanwhile within the Pac-12…
The real-time competitive situation is marginally higher for Washington State, not a lot for Oregon State.
The Cougars survived a scare at Fresno State on Saturday, securing their fifth win in six games with a fourth-quarter pick six.
They are a lock for the postseason, partly since the second-half schedule is stuffed with low-value opponents.
(Their best probability to remain on the national stage disappeared once they lost by three touchdowns at Boise State.)
The Beavers' situation is worse than it takes care of the loss at Nevada dropped their record to 4-2, and here's why:
They need two wins to secure a bowl spot, but only have one game left at Air Force that might be considered a possible win.
Otherwise, OSU may have one mishap after one other down the stretch, and that's a dangerous existence for a program eager to stay relevant.
In seven weeks, we would look back on the loss in Reno because the result that kept OSU at home over the vacations.
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