Cameroon President Paul Biya is 91 years old. He is Africa's oldest head of state and just one has been in office longer: President Teodoro Obiang Nguema from neighboring Equatorial Guinea, who’s 82 years old.
Biya has been Cameroon's president since 1982. He was previously Prime Minister from 1975.
In recent weeks there was increasing speculation in regards to the nonagenarian's health. Some rumors even suggested that he had died. This prompted the Cameroonian government to issue an announcement Ban on all reports about his health.
These rumor cycles have repeated when Biya “disappears” for an extended time frame. In front of him arrived On October 21, Biya was at Yaounde International Airport last seen publicly on Sept. 8 while attending a China-Africa forum in Beijing.
Cameroon has only had two presidents since independence. For 60% Of the country's young population, Biya is the one president they know.
The country is in a precarious position and is uncertain what’s going to occur after Biya rules with an iron fist.
Long term tenures normally don't end well. Examples across the continent illustrate the high potential for political instability. The most striking cases include Libya, Tunisia, Sudan, Gabon, Chad and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
For me, as an associate professor of international studies and researcher on regime transformation in Africa, Cameroon is of particular interest due to its regime resilience over the many years many within the region I didn't fare so well.
In my view, post-Biya, Cameroon will reach a turning point sooner somewhat than later. Cameroon lacks strong constitutional guardrails, so succession is bound to be a really messy affair.
Secondly, due to years Nepotism And Tribalism The situation institutionalized by Biya creates an increased potential for regional and ethnic tensions or conflicts – even a general breakdown of law and order.
Finally, the military establishment may perhaps make a move to guard the republic in times of uncertainty.
The legacy
Cameroon is supplied with abundant resourcesincluding oil, gas and wood. It can be strategically situated on the crossroads of West and Central Africa on the Atlantic coast and is an access point to inland regions.
Still, in keeping with the World Food ProgramOver 55% of Cameroonians live in poverty and 37.7% are severely impoverished.
The country's infrastructure is in poor condition. While the port of Douala has been modernized and regional rail connections akin to the Douala-Yaoundé line have been expanded, the road and rail infrastructure is barely functional.
According to Transparency International, corruption is widespread in Cameroon. The country Ranks one hundred and fortieth out of 180. This despite official efforts to do something about it.
In 1982, Biya capitalized on anti-corruption sentiment Amadou Ahidjo Regime. Biya promised a “New Deal” to fight corruption. Despite initial progress through the In the early Nineteen Nineties in Cameroon was at the highest of the corruption table worldwide.
Critics suspect that Biya also used his Anti-corruption initiative to maintain his potential competitors at bay.
nepotism and Tribalism Continue as Biya established a Patron-client state system. For example, there are reports that the Beti people, the president's ethnic relatives, are mounting an attack disproportionate slice in senior positions in government and the military. Yet they only make up a small percentage of the population.
This has created a kleptocratic system that may only be achieved by widespread people communal discontent.
There are other deep fissures in Cameroonian society. Socially, the country became a federated entity upon independence in 2000 1960. Two language groups – French and English – merged to form a United Republic of Cameroon.
This unity lasted for some time. But increasing dissatisfaction with Biya's regime, particularly the marginalization of the Anglophone southwest, became one rise up in 2016. Thousands of individuals were killed and tens of 1000’s displaced. It also led to 1 increased motion by the central authority.
Today, Cameroon is a fragmented society, with the southwest demanding greater autonomy, linguistic equality and even self-determination. The Creation of the Commission on Bilingualism and Multiculturalism and the granting of special status to the rebellious regions has done little to contain the crisis.
Regional role
At the regional level, Cameroon has been a very important partner for the United States and France within the fight Boko Haram within the region. The country is directly affected by the attacks of this Islamist group, which has its origins in Nigeria prolonged his reign of terror throughout the region.
As a part of the counterterrorism campaign, there was a detailed relationship between the USA, France and Cameroon in addition to strategic cooperation between the military and intelligence services.
Likewise, Biya might be commended for resolving the difficulty peacefully Crisis on the Bakassi Peninsula trigger a territorial border dispute with Nigeria and thus avert regional instability.
There are still no obvious signs that a Franco-Cameroonian relationship would occur after Biya similar under load to other scenarios within the region.
France has established a stable political and economic relationship with Cameroon, investing heavily within the region, providing political protection and partnership to the regime Defense pact.
This relationship also benefited many political and military elites. Unless there may be a monumental development, it is bound to endure within the post-Biya era.
Fragmented political landscape
Biya's longevity at the highest of Cameroonian politics is a testament to his ability to mobilize all state resources, power and constitutional levers for his lifelong presidency. He has outmaneuvered all political competitors.
This allowed him to avoid the fate of neighboring countries akin to the Central African Republic, Niger, Chad and Gabon, whose governments were overthrown by military coups.
In 1992, Biya agreed to a multi-party dispensation. But since then he has developed engineers Repeal of term limits and he’s in his seventh term.
But within the twilight of his years and within the absence of a delegated successor or an elite pact, there may be an actual possibility that various factions of the Biya regime, akin to those of Frank Biya, Ngoh Ngoh, Laurent Esso and even the military, will achieve this jostle and fight for power.
Without a political culture of constitutional constraints, instability seems inevitable. And the insurgency within the southwest could increase its military and political pressure to have a greater influence on whoever involves power after Biya.
Whether the subsequent political leadership will have the option to recommend a transformative agenda for socio-political reconciliation and national renewal will probably be determined by their ability to search out a serious compromise.
image credit : theconversation.com