The Army-Navy game holds a special yet peculiar place on the faculty football calendar.
Its significance is undeniable given the history, ferocity and grandeur of the rivalry. It is literally the one championship weekend game on the Saturday after the conference in December. Still, the stakes of the sport normally don't matter with regards to the rankings or the race for the national championship.
This yr it's complicated.
The service academies are each undefeated and ranked. And the 12-team College Football Playoff means the No. 23 Black Knights (7-0) and No. 24 Midshipmen (6-0) are bona fide playoff contenders — if either of them can win the American Athletic Conference .
But the playoff field shall be determined Dec. 8 — six days before the beginning of the annual Army-Navy game in Landover, Maryland. And with Army and Navy now conference mates within the AAC, the Dec. 14 matchup could possibly be the 2 teams' second meeting in a season.
Here's a have a look at how things could end up.
How did we get here?
Army QB Bryson Daily leads all FBS players with 19 rushing touchdowns. (Lucas Boland/Imagn Images)
It is the primary time since 1926 that the Army and Navy have each began a season 6-0.
The Black Knights are 7-0 and have yet to play a game. Of course, they lead the nation in rushing offense, led by quarterback Bryson Daily, who recorded 26 total touchdowns. Army is already 6-0 in AAC play, meaning only two conference games remain (at North Texas, UTSA).
The Midshipmen are 6-0 heading right into a huge game against No. 12 Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, and 4-0 within the AAC. It's already their best season since 2019, after they won 11 games.
The Army and Navy currently occupy the highest two spots within the AAC rankings.
So… does that mean they might play twice?
Yes – in consecutive weeks. They could face one another within the conference championship game on December sixth and meet again on December 14th for his or her annual rivalry.
But Tulane is correct behind them with a 3-0 conference record heading into play against Navy on November sixteenth. A loss could end Navy's probability of punching its ticket to the conference championship, thereby dashing the Mids' playoff hopes.
Will the Army-Navy game be considered for the CFP?
A possible meet within the AAC Championship can be possible. But the annual, neutral game won’t happen.
Selection day for the playoffs is Sunday, December 8, and the annual Army-Navy game is the next Saturday. In the four-team playoff era, the choice committee had a protocol that allowed it to attend for Army-Navy if it had an impact on the sphere. But with the 12-team playoffs starting the weekend of December 20-21, there was no waiting for the result this time.
This means there’s a scenario through which a service academy wins the AAC and a spot within the CFP, then loses its final regular-season game against the identical opponent it beat to advance to the playoffs.
There will still be bragging rights at stake, after all.
Would the Army or Navy have less time to organize for a playoff game?
Given that no other team plays a game the week of Dec. 14, certainly one of the service academies would have less time to organize for its postseason opponent if it were to clinch a playoff spot.
What are the probabilities of Army or Navy making the playoffs?
There is a 29.6 percent probability that Army or Navy will make the playoffs, but each teams' individual percentages will look barely different depending on the outcomes of their next games.
If Navy beats Notre Dame on Saturday, the Midshipmen's possibilities of making the playoffs increase to 10 percent, in accordance with Austin Mock's prediction model. In the event of a loss, this drops to five percent.
The Army has a better opponent within the Air Force, so the cadets' odds are higher: 30 percent in the event that they win and 14 percent in the event that they lose. Army also must play Notre Dame on Nov. 23 at Yankee Stadium.
Mock's model gives the Army a 63 percent probability of winning the AAC, while the Navy has a 15 percent probability.
Go deeper
What do Army and Navy's historic starts mean for the AAC Championship? CFP?
What else has to occur for either team to make the playoffs?
Two things should occur. First, it is clear that Army or Navy will proceed to win and win the AAC. It's unlikely that either of them could make the playoffs as an overall team.
Second, they probably need the Mountain West to beat one another up. Boise State (5-1) is currently ahead of Army and Navy, and the Broncos' only blemish is a road loss at Oregon.
The other Mountain West team to fret about is UNLV (6-1). Boise State plays at UNLV on Friday, which may have a major impact on the Group of 5 playoff bid.
If you would like a guide to getting Army or Navy into the CFP, I'd probably make the case for UNLV to tug off an upset this weekend after which proceed to make the case for each of those teams to lose down the stretch. —
Has the Army or Navy ever won a national championship?
Under the leadership of Glenn Davis, the 1946 Heisman Trophy winner, Army won national titles in 1944, 1945 and 1946. (Bettmann via Getty Images)
Yes, but the main points are a bit complicated since college football hasn't all the time had a national championship game.
Army wins five national championships (1914, 1916, 1944, 1945, 1946), although several programs win titles in 4 of those years. Likewise, the Navy claims a share of the 1926 national title.
The last time either team reached the AP top 10 was 1964, when Navy peaked at No. 6.
What's next?
Army finishes the regular season with Air Force (1-6), North Texas (5-2), Notre Dame (6-1), UTSA (3-4) and Navy.
Navy ties with Notre Dame, Rice (2-5), South Florida (3-4), Tulane (5-2), East Carolina (3-4) and Army.
image credit : www.nytimes.com