The populations of some states are very much like the population of the U.S. as an entire – including five key states within the 2024 presidential election

Five of the seven states widely expected to be political battlegrounds within the 2024 presidential election have populations very much like the U.S. as an entire across a variety of demographic and socioeconomic measures.

For many years, presidential election season began with the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire caucuses. But lately the practice has been criticized for giving front-runner status in national elections to 2 of the smallest states with the least racial and ethnic diversity.

These two states have restarted the electoral process in 2024, but through the Democratic Party didn’t officially participate within the New Hampshire primary, which President Joe Biden won as a write-in candidate.

Instead, in response to our evaluation, the primary official Democratic primary took place in South Carolina, a state more much like the United States than New Hampshire US Census Bureau data.

Our research shows that there are states which are much more much like the US overall – and in reality, New Hampshire is one in all the states that least resembles the country overall. Our work provides insight into which states have a big political voice in an election season, which don’t, and which could also be price paying more attention to.

Examining population data

Using data from the American Community Survey 2022A nationwide questionnaire survey conducted by the Census Bureau, we compared each state to the nation as an entire based on five characteristics:

• Racial and ethnic collapse: the proportion of people that reported their race and ethnicity as Latino, non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, Black, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, White, one other race, or two or more races;
• Age-gender distribution: the proportion of individuals identified as men or women in various age groups from 0 to over 85 years, noting that the Census Bureau only offers two options for gender identity;
• level of education: the proportion of individuals with primary or secondary education, a university degree or a series of educational qualifications;
• Household income: the proportion of households reporting their income in various ranges from lower than $10,000 to $200,000 or more;
• Occupational distribution: the proportion of employees employed in various broad occupational sectors akin to agriculture, fishing and forestry; construction and extraction; or sales and related professions.

For each feature we used a statistical method called Dissimilarity index to find out how similar or dissimilar each state was within the country's demographic and socioeconomic profile. A dissimilarity index value of zero would indicate that the state is similar to your complete country. A price of 100 would mean that it couldn't be more different.

We ranked each state's scores for every characteristic after which averaged those rankings to list the states in an overall order from most much like most dissimilar.

Find common ground

It seems that Illinois was the state most much like your complete country in 2022. Illinois more closely resembled the nation than another state in its breakdown by race, ethnicity, age and gender distribution, and household income distribution. It was the second most much like the country by way of educational distribution and fourth most much like the country by way of occupational distribution.

This was interesting for us personally because in the summertime of 2009 one in all us, Rogelio Sáenz, was driving through Illinois and was reminded by a street sign of the old rhetorical query: “Will it be set in Peoria?“As early as the 1880s, theater producers and others viewed the city of Peoria, Illinois, as a microcosm of the nation. In politics, the phrase has been adopted to evoke “a sweet spot for takeover.”Pulse of the nation“on political campaigns and legislative proposals,” as Peoria Magazine wrote in 2009.

At the time, Sáenz wondered whether the saying had any connection to reality. And it seems that that is the case, not less than once you have a look at the state of Peoria: The population of Illinois may be very much like the population of the US as an entire.

Five swing states are amongst those most much like the United States

Generally, Swing or battleground states are those that have similar shares of Democratic and Republican voters and have enough people to have significant influence within the Electoral College. They will exist in 2024 seven of them.

What is especially noteworthy is that five of the ten states are most much like the USA Swing states for 2024. Illinois will not be a swing state, but the subsequent three are: North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. And their swing counterparts Michigan and Pennsylvania rank seventh and eighth, respectively. The remaining two at the highest of the list are Oregon and Kansas. The two swing states not in the highest 10 are Nevada and Wisconsin.

Combined, the seven swing states just over a 3rd of votes needed to win the presidency. Since these states play a vital role in electing the president, they’re Focus of the campaign promoting and public relations in addition to candidate appearances.

Our evaluation highlights the role of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics in determining which states are swing states. For example, the five swing states most much like the United States are inclined to have greater racial and ethnic diversity than other states. This also includes states which are very much like the United States by way of occupational, educational, age, gender and income data.

States which are less much like the USA

Our evaluation also shows how different New Hampshire is from the USA. It is forty fifth within the list.

South Carolina and Iowa, two other states with early roles within the presidential process, rank twentieth and twenty eighth, respectively. But the opposite two swing states are close: Wisconsin and Nevada are available at twenty third and twenty ninth, respectively.

Even very populous states akin to California, Texas, Florida and New York differ from the country as an entire, but in alternative ways. For example, California is analogous to the United States by way of occupational distribution, but differs greatly by way of race and ethnicity. Texas is sort of much like the United States in socioeconomic terms, but very different demographically. Florida is analogous to the United States by way of race and ethnicity, education, and income, but differs significantly in composition by age, gender, and occupation. New York is analogous to the nation by way of race and ethnicity, but differs significantly by way of occupations.

A brand new perspective

The results may help people take into consideration the different sorts of diversity within the US population 336 million people.

And perhaps it will possibly be used to influence future decisions about which states will host the primary presidential primaries and elections.

Illinois, for instance, could make a compelling case for being the opening act in future presidential primaries since it is a thumbnail of the nation as an entire. Over the course of 51 presidential electionsIllinois voters have voted for Democrats 25 times and Republicans 24 times, with disagreements in two other elections – they usually have selected the winning candidate 42 including 51 times.