President Raisi has been reported dead – what that would mean for the country and the region

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi reported dead after the helicopter he was in crashed on May 19, 2024is an absolute loyalist whose death will probably be a serious blow to the country's conservative leadership.

As search and rescue teams – hampered by rain, fog, forests and mountains – looked for wreckage, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told the nation “should pray for Raisi”..

As Expert on Iran's domestic and foreign policyI consider that concerns in Tehran may extend beyond the potential human tragedy of the crash. The change this can force can have necessary implications for an Iranian state that will probably be consumed by it domestic chaos and regional and international confrontation.

Who is Ebrahim Raisi?

Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Raisi served as zealous apparatchik of the Islamic Republic and a distinguished protégé of Khameneiwho, as supreme leader, holds absolute power within the Islamic Republic.

Before becoming president in 2021, Raisi held various positions throughout the judiciary under the leadership of the Supreme Leader. As a prosecutor and at the top of the Iran-Iraq War In 1988 he sat on the committee that sentenced 1000’s of political prisoners to death.

The executions earned him the nickname “theButcher of Tehranafter which subdued him Sanctions by the United States and condemnation by the United Nations and international human rights organizations.

Raisi since 2006 was a member of the expert assemblya body that appoints and oversees the supreme leader.

And although he lacked charisma and eloquence, Raisi, 63, was regarded as it prepared for achievement the 85-year-old Khamenei as supreme leader.

A checkered domestic record

Domestically, Raisi was president each the cause and the consequence a crisis of legitimacy and social chaos for the regime.

He won controversially 2021 presidential election after a high variety of candidate disqualifications by the Guardian Council, which vets candidates, and a historically low variety of voters Voter turnout of lower than 50%.

To appease his conservative base, Raisi and his government strengthened the moral police and reimposed religious restrictions on society. These policies led to the “Women, Life, Freedom” protests sparked by the movement Death in police custody by Mahsa Amini in 2022. The demonstrations proved successful largest and longest in the virtually 50-year history of the Islamic Republic. They also led to unprecedented state repression, Over 500 demonstrators were killed and tons of more were injured, disappeared and imprisoned. During the protests, Raisi demonstrated his loyalty to the supreme leader and conservative elites by tightening restrictions and crackdowns.

Meanwhile, the Iranian economy under Raisi continued to suffer from a mixture of things Government mismanagement and corruptiontogether with US sanctions which have increased in response Tehran's domestic political repression and provocations abroad.

Confrontation for rapprochement

The domestic political turmoil under Raisi's presidency was accompanied by changes in Iran's regional and international role.

As supreme leader, Khamenei has the ultimate say on foreign policy. But Raisi presided over a state that continued on its path confrontation along with his opponentsespecially the USA and Israel.

And whether by alternative or out of perceived necessity: Tehran has moved further and further away from any idea of ​​rapprochement with the West.

Given the tightened US sanctions, Iran under Raisi is reluctant to revive the nuclear deal. Instead, Iran has increased uranium enrichment, blocked international inspectors and develop into a nuclear threshold state.

Raisi also continued: ““Look East” policy his predecessor Hassan Rouhani. To this end, he and his government sought a better rapprochement with China.

Beijing, in turn, has provided an economic lifeline by importing Iranian oil and brokering a diplomatic agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023.

However, under Raisi's presidency, Iran continued this act as an ally and donor of conflicts against the USA and against the West, the availability of combat drones to Russia to be used in Ukraine and the availability of weapons to varied regional proxies within the Middle East.

Since the war in Gaza began on October 7, 2023, Iran under Khamenei and Raisi has maintained a fragile balance: allowing its regional proxies to act against Israel and the United States while avoiding direct confrontation with each countries, which is conventional are superior enemies.

This balance was temporarily upset when the Islamic Republic directly attacked Israel with drones and missiles for the primary time in history in April in retaliation for an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

Although in a roundabout way answerable for foreign policy, Raisi has been a key supporter of the Iranian regime because it sought to further distance itself from the established international order and seek alliances with countries similarly hostile to the West.

At the time of the helicopter crash, Raisi and his colleagues were getting back from a dam inauguration ceremony in neighboring Azerbaijan. The ceremony was likely intended as Iran's try and curry favor with Azerbaijan, having previously taken an ambiguous, if not controversial, position within the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – which ended with a convincing victory for Azerbaijan in late 2023.

What a change in president could mean

In Raisi, Supreme Leader Khamenei had a long-time loyalist, a regime insider and a possible successor.

According to the Iranian structure, any death of a president ends in the primary vp serving as interim president. In this case that might mean Mohammad Mokhber, who’s a politician very just like Raisi and who was a politician distinguished member of the Iranian team negotiating arms deals with Moscow.

Iran would must do the identical to carry presidential elections inside 50 days. It stays to be seen who the supreme leader would approve of as future president and potential successor.

But it is much from certain that Tehran's conservatives will remain on top of things given the inner and external pressures they face.

Domestically, this might take the shape of greater state repression and electoral manipulation. At the regional and international levels, I consider this might mean forging stronger relationships with emerging allies and pursuing a calculated confrontation with traditional adversaries.