Air travel is predicted to surge within the United States through the summer, with the Transportation Security Administration screening 2.99 million people on Sunday, June 23 – surpassing the record set just weeks earlier on May 24. The TSA predicts a record-breaking Fourth of July holiday. Over three million flyers are expected to be scanned on Friday, the week before Independence Day.
The TSA expects to screen greater than 32 million travelers between Friday, June 28 and Monday, July 8. This represents a 5.4% increase in holiday travel in comparison with last yr.
The record variety of air travelers is on account of challenges facing airlines starting from supply chain delays to strict regulations. The safety crisis at Boeing, which is limiting the launch of recent aircraft, Air traffic controller “FatigueDelays caused by extreme weather conditions and rising costs have negatively impacted airlines' profits and reduced their margins.
The airports were not fully prepared for the initial summer rush. Over 6,000 flights were delayed by the evening of Friday, May 24, on the East Coast alone. While there may be enough flights to meet demand, record travel numbers are still posing challenges for airports, airlines and travelers. For now, airlines are expressing optimism.
Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC's “Squawk Box” this week that the company's performance was excellent, with “the most effective reliability in the primary quarter [Delta has] ever seen.” (Delta has the best punctuality rate in the USA)
However, there will also be a need for coordination here.
Robert Isom, CEO of American Airlines, told “Squawk Box” that the company is committed to being “essentially the most reliable airline possible.” However, the factors that affect the punctuality of flights vary – from weather to problems with air traffic control.
Air traffic, weather extremes
The Federal Aviation Administration has identified a shortage of as many as 3,000 air traffic controllers. Last summer, a record summer for airports, saw congestion and near-collisions due to flight coordination problems. New York City and Florida are at the highest risk of congestion due to air traffic patterns and airport density.
The massive heat wave in the United States was a taste of the kind of extreme weather that can cause travel problems. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Expects stormy weather for the holiday week, with storms in the Midwest and East Coast and persistent dangerous heat in the Southwest and Northeast.
Extreme temperatures cause technical failures and therefore delays. Great heat leads to thin airwhich hinders the aircraft's thrust during takeoff and climb. It means that planes need a longer runway or a lighter aircraft – by removing luggage or passengers. And it means that very high temperatures increase the risk of flight cancellations. The best way to avoid this risk is to take early morning or night flights.
Good news to reduce travel anxiety
By preparing and securing backup plans, travelers can make the most of the busy summer season. And despite travel anxiety and a number of uncertainties, Clint Henderson, travel expert and editor-in-chief of The Points Guy, says airlines and airports are so far showing signs of being better prepared than in years past.
Despite the problems in May and despite some Airlines are scaling back their hiring plans overall Compared to years past, in part due to delays at Boeing, Henderson said, “We haven't seen the large crashes that we saw a few years ago. And I feel a part of the rationale for that’s the airlines and airports and everybody from Uber to automotive rental corporations, you recognize, you name it, they've all began hiring again.”
United Airlines has forecast a 7% increase in passengers for Independence Day week 2023 and is preparing for it with new staff. American Airlines is planning 10% more departures this summer compared to last year.
Coordination among air traffic controllers is also improving. “The federal government and native air traffic control towers are working higher together, and that features the military. They've opened up military airspace to accommodate the crowds, so there's been congestion,” Henderson said. “There's still a shortage of air traffic controllers, however it hasn't resulted within the worst consequences that we expected after we talked concerning the shortage of air traffic controllers only a yr ago.”
However, he warns that severe weather could lead to major delays for travelers due to inadequate air traffic control.
Tips for traveling on Independence Day
With prices lower than expected, many passengers are becoming casual flyers this summer. They should start by signing up to airline apps, which may offer them some introductory benefits, from miles to free Wi-Fi on some flights.
Henderson said the easiest way to avoid hours of waiting is to enroll in programs that offer passengers faster processing times, such as TSA PreCheck and Clear, as well as the Mobile Passport Control app, which requires no application and allows users to expedited processing at U.S. Customs.
He also recommended using the Flighty app or similar flight trackers to stay informed of options when flight status changes. Passengers also need to keep an eye on the routes the planes they want to take are already traveling to spot any problems at other airports that could ultimately lead to a cascade of cancellations.
“If your flight gets canceled, you're competing with all the opposite people on that plane to get the following available flight, so for those who can get a head start on those people, you're going to be the winner,” Henderson said. When it comes to travel during peak season, “information is power,” he said.
Cheaper airfares may not be a permanent solution
While airfares have fallen, the price is influenced by many factors: from the traveler's specific destination, where prices can vary greatly depending on the route, to how far in advance tickets are purchased, whether the trip is during the week or on the weekend, and what additional fees (e.g. for baggage) can significantly increase the total cost of the trip.
And there are still problems with the supply of new aircraft – from the FAA's curtailment of Boeing production to Airbus supply chain problems – so the recent price drop is unlikely to last too long. Henderson ultimately expects airlines to raise prices due to rising maintenance costs and reduced fleet capacity.
Labor and fuel costs per flight have skyrocketed in the past year. Due to production delays, airlines are paying billions to use less fuel-efficient and more expensive and older jets. Older aircraft are more likely to experience technical problems, which also lead to delays.
On June 26, Southwest Airlines lowered its second-quarter revenue forecast, citing booking concerns. The company announced a decline in expected revenue per seat per mile and an increase in fuel costs of up to 7.5% year over year.
But despite rising costs, airfares have not yet returned to their summer 2023 peaks, and consumers are taking advantage. Henderson said many last-minute travel deals airlines are offering this summer are still available. Even though security lines are long, prices on many routes should not weigh on travelers. Hopefully, delays and cancellations won't either.
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