Why the West mustn’t worry about Putin's visit to Hanoi

Shortly after his trip to North Korea last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed within the Vietnamese capital Hanoi, as an old friend. His 22-hour state visit took place at the very best level and led to a Number of agreements in the sphere of energy and science and technology. There was also talk in regards to the once close allies Cooperation in the sphere of defence and security.

In some ways, this expression of affection will not be surprising. After all, it was the communists in North Vietnam, with Soviet support, who won the war in 1975 and united with Saigon (now Ho Chi Minh City) and the South.

Many members of Vietnam's current political, economic and academic elite also worked or studied within the Soviet Union over the next decade and are very aware of the close relationship between the Soviet Union and the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV).

---

---

But the greeting of old comrades and the litany of gestures of growing cooperation raised questions and concerns. Should Putin's warm welcome in Hanoi worry the West after years of cooperation and booming integration with the US and Western markets?

We don't think so. While the present leaders of the CPV and other elites were shaped by the peak of Soviet-Vietnamese ties, this will not be the case for Vietnam's younger generations.

The country's 100 million inhabitants have a really different – and more Western – orientation. The leaders of Vietnam's booming digital economy, for instance, mostly studied within the West and speak English slightly than Russian.

The United States exerts far more influence on Vietnam than the proven Russian friends do. This is very true for the generations born around or after the introduction of a series of market-based reforms in 1986 often called Đổi Mới. For most of those people, Russia is unknown beyond history lessons and a number of provinces where it invests or sends tourists.

Their coming of age took place under the influence of growing Western popularity. There has been a dramatic decline in Russia-related courses in Vietnamese schools and universities, and the Russian language is far less in demand than French and JapaneseIn contrast, the rise of international education in Vietnam was marked by the mass import of Western content, comparable to the iGCSE curriculum and the SAT exam.

Go west, young man

For young Vietnamese, including the little children of politicians, business and academic leaders educated in Russia, education and work within the West have grow to be the norm. Our own researchpublished in 2021, compared the backgrounds of Vietnam's digital leaders – most of whom were born during or after the collapse of the Soviet Union – with the founders of leading Vietnamese corporations in additional traditional sectors comparable to coffee, furniture and steel.

A have a look at the transnational experiences of each groups of founders reveals a remarkable difference: Vietnam's booming startups are predominantly run by returnees from the West slightly than from the previous Soviet Union.

The founders of Vietnam's top-performing technology corporations are 15 times more more likely to have U.S. experience than their older counterparts, and so they are 35 times more more likely to be graduates of American universities than the leaders of huge, traditional Vietnamese corporations.

The entrepreneurs who’re creating recent wealth in Vietnam and setting the direction and pace of the country's cultural norms, economic growth and technological connections have significantly different experiences than the older generation.

This generational shift towards a Western background, each in business and beyond, leads us to suspect that Putin's state visit may very well be a largely ceremonial affair. We see the Vietnamese leadership rolling out the red carpet for Putin as a part of their long-standing “Bamboo diplomacy”through which Vietnam cooperates pragmatically with all powers.

For two related reasons, it’s unlikely to reflect any deeper ambitions or future intentions for the country to maneuver away from bamboo diplomacy.

First, over the past 30 years, the West has built a robust and tangible base in all elements of cultural, economic and technological life in Vietnam – from the metropolis of Ho Chi Minh City within the south to Hanoi within the north. In fact, Hanoi even seems Welcome to the West In terms of security, there may be a contrast to Vietnam's stock of Russian-made weapons.

Second, Vietnam's political leadership will increasingly be crammed with Western-educated returnees, and because the few generations of Vietnamese elites with strong affinities with Russia thin out, commitment to agreements with their old comrades will even diminish.

Not to say the country’s already highly westernized economy, which is driven by FTA And investment from the West, supported by the growing community of Western-educated business people.

Perhaps the clearest indication of Vietnam's commitment to its bamboo diplomacy is the undeniable fact that just three days after Putin's departure, the CPV welcomed a US Deputy Secretary of State, Daniel Kritenbrink. The visit to the American friend reaffirmed the “comprehensive strategic partner” Status of the USA in Vietnam, which puts it on a par with China and Russia.