In the primary round of France's early parliamentary elections, the anti-immigration Rassemblement National (Rassemblement National) gained a lift in votes, with President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance coming in third.
Early poll data from national broadcaster France 2 showed the Rassemblement National (RN) winning 34% of the vote, while the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance received 28.1%. Macron's centrist Unity bloc was forecast to receive 20.3%, in response to early forecasts.
On Monday morning Ministry of the Interior published updated figures showing the RN and its allies receiving 33.1 percent of the vote, the NFP in second place with 28 percent and Macron's coalition at 20 percent.
According to Antonio Barroso, deputy research director at Teneo, the predominant focus needs to be on the second round of the election on July 7.
“First-round victories usually say little about the overall outcome (unless a particular party has won a surprising number of victories). That's why, in addition to the overall percentage of votes for each party, the main thing to watch on Sunday evening is how many candidates from each party make it to the second round,” he said in an announcement on Wednesday.
“If Together performs poorly in the first round as expected, there will be plenty of racing between the NFP and the RN.”
Before the primary round of voting, French opinion polls suggested that the far-right Rassemblement National (Rassemblement National) would receive around 35 percent of the vote within the election, followed by the left-wing NFP alliance and a coalition of pro-Macron parties in third place.
It is due to this fact widely expected that the Rassemblement National will significantly increase its seats within the French National Assembly (577 seats) from the present 89.
Nevertheless, Sunday's forecasts suggest that no party has secured an absolute majority of not less than 289 seats after the primary round of voting, pointing to a parliament and not using a clear majority and a period of political and economic uncertainty after the votes.
French President Emmanuel Macron will remain in office until 2027 whatever the election consequence. However, he may come under pressure to decide on a brand new prime minister from inside the Rassemblement National (even when the party doesn’t win an absolute majority in the ultimate vote). The almost definitely candidate is 28-year-old Rassemblement National President Jordan Bardella.
This latest prime minister would have a serious influence on France's domestic and economic policies, while Macron would remain answerable for foreign and defense policy. In any case, so-called “cohabitation” could make governing difficult, raising concerns amongst economists about how the election could affect the eurozone's second-largest economy.
Macron shocked Europe's political establishment when he announced a snap vote in early June after his Renaissance party suffered a devastating defeat by the Rassemblement National within the European Parliament elections.
Political analysts said Macron's move was an extreme gamble, with the president betting that French residents would fear and ultimately reject the prospect of a far-right government. Instead, he appears to have emboldened his political rivals.
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