When Washington, DC, last Hosted a NATO summit in 1999The alliance celebrated a milestone. It was also before a war in Europe And Welcoming latest members to the Alliance.
So there can be a certain sense of déjà vu within the American capital when the heads of state and government of 32 nations Meeting from July 9, 2024to debate the status of the Alliance on the occasion of its seventy fifth anniversary.
But the size of the challenges NATO faces today, each inside and outdoors the organization, dwarfs what it faced in 1999 when it celebrated its fiftieth anniversary. The war in Ukraine has been raging for greater than two years now. NATO must also take care of the Rise of China and the associated challenges for geopolitics. Meanwhile, various members of the alliance are also experiencing Political challenges at home And Follow-up elections.
The upcoming US presidential elections are of particular importance for NATO. The Republican candidate Donald Trump is quickly expresses his displeasure with the alliance. And close advisors indicate that he’s serious about possibly an try to withdraw the USA from NATO if he’s re-elected president.
Other topics on the NATO summit agenda include the event of a brand new Southern flank strategy to handle the growing security challenges within the Middle East and North Africa, and the inauguration of the brand new Secretary-General, Mark Rutte.
But it’s the next 4 issues that may dominate discussions in Washington from July 9 to 11. How the Alliance addresses these issues will shed some light on the health of NATO on its seventy fifth anniversary – and its future direction.
1. Ukraine’s membership: A battle of semantics?
NATO expressed its support for the primary time for Ukraine’s accession to the Alliance in 2008 but didn’t offer a timetable for further steps. This limbo has plagued the alliance ever since. At the 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the alliance didn't appear to be in a terrible hurryand stated: “We will be able to invite Ukraine to join the alliance if the allies agree and the conditions are met.”
This vague wording led to a fierce and frustrated public response from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selensky, who described the wording as “unprecedented and absurd.”
The Washington summit will once more be a fragile exercise in semantics. A proper invitation to hitch is not going to be on the table for Ukraine, as several countries still oppose this step. The US and Germany particularly have stated that they first wish to see further improvements by the federal government in Kyiv with regards to fighting corruption and upholding the rule of law.
AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin
The trick for NATO leaders can be to seek out language of their official statement that satisfies all parties. It would have to point out progress from last yr, be welcome in Kyiv and proceed to have the support of all NATO member states. The Biden administration has spoken of offering a “bridge to membership,” but other allies still hope for a stronger languageThey are pushing for wording within the spirit of the statement made by outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in April, in accordance with which Ukraine is on a “irreversible path.”
2. Support for Ukraine: Protecting aid from political winds
Since the beginning of Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western states have provided Kyiv with significant military aid. But recent deliveries have faced significant delays – the results of resistance from some countries throughout the European Union and as well by members of the US CongressThese delays have had hostile consequences for Ukraine on the battlefield because it seeks to counter the Russian advance.
A key challenge for NATO can be to institutionalise support for Ukraine while shielding it from the prevailing political divisions inside its member states.
As a primary step, NATO will take over the coordination of security assistance and training for Ukraine. According to Stoltenberg, this simply reflects that “99 percent of military support already comes from NATO members.” The aim can be to enhance the present process. In fact, the present system of support on the country level has not at all times driven by efficiency or by what Kiev needs.
In addition, Stoltenberg is pushing for a multi-year financial commitment from all member states Making aid for Ukraine more predictable.
But recent reports suggest that this goal be watered downMember States can only commit to 43 billion US dollars (40 billion euros) for one yr, against obligations for an extended periodAn important test can be the extent to which the summit will achieve institutionalising aid for Ukraine.
3. China and the Indo-Pacific: Globalization of Security
Just days before the summit in Washington, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said wrote an article wherein he emphasized that “security is not a regional but a global issue.” He also added that “Europe’s security impacts Asia and Asia’s security impacts Europe.”
NATO increasingly views the European and Indo-Pacific theaters as interdependent, and this is formed by its growing concerns about China. It was not until 2019 that the Alliance first officially discussed China as a Challenges and opportunitiesSince then, NATO has taken an increasingly tough stance towards the authorities in Beijing.
In particular, China’s support for Russia in the course of the war in Ukraine has contributed significantly to the deterioration of relations with the West and NATO is being drawn further into the Indo-PacificThis week's summit can be attended for the third time in a row by the heads of state and government of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand – all three countries are usually not NATO members.
NATO leaders see China as a challenge, but are far less clear about How to approach it. Cooperation with NATO 4 Indo-Pacific partners stays limited. The alliance also seems unsure concerning the extent to which it should deal with Asia relatively than Europe. And member states are usually not in agreement concerning the Seriousness of the threat from BeijingDeveloping a clearer strategy towards China can be considered one of the priorities of the participants on the 2024 summit.
4. Radiate unity: solidarity in difficult times
The seventy fifth anniversary summit is meant to have a good time NATO's longevity and resilience. There will definitely be positive headlines, especially the proven fact that 23 Member States spend 2% of their gross domestic product on defence – a long-standing NATO goal that until recently only relatively few countries have achieved. Since 2022, NATO has also succeeded in providing significant military assistance to Ukraine.
But NATO can be a political alliance, and one which is facing major headwinds. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s “peace mission” to Moscow, just days before the NATO summit, caused considerable outrage amongst other EU Member StatesAlthough French voters have decided against the right-wing extremist Rassemblement National coming to power – which dramatically influenced the country's approach on NATO and Ukraine – the political landscape in NATO member states stays unstable.
And then, in fact, there are the US presidential elections in November. A Trump victory could mean Another 4 difficult years for NATO.
The meeting in Washington DC is getting used as a chance to have a good time NATO's longevity. But the summit is also judged on the extent to which member states can proceed to form a united front despite sensitive issues and an uncertain political future for individual member states.
image credit : theconversation.com