Can Kamala Harris win the US presidency after Joe Biden's withdrawal? This is what the polls say

The elections within the United States will happen on November 5. On Sunday, US time, President Joe Biden withdrew withdrew from the presidential campaign and supported his Vice President Kamala Harris.

It is just not certain, but it is extremely likely that Harris will now be the Democratic candidate to face former Republican President Donald Trump in November. Democratic presidential primaries Biden won about 95% of all delegates for the August 19-22 Democratic Convention in voting earlier this 12 months. Given Biden's support, those delegates are more likely to support Harris.

Since the talk with Trump on June 27, which was widely seen as a disaster for Biden, he has been under pressure to retract his position. Ipsos poll According to ABC News from the US, published before Biden's withdrawal on Sunday, Democratic voters wanted Biden to withdraw by a majority of 60 to 39.

After the assassination attempt on Trump on July 13 and the Republican Party Convention from July 15 to 18, Trump’s lead over Biden within the FiveThirtyEight Total national polls had risen from 1.9 points on July 13 to three.2 points, the most important lead since polling began in March. The vote shares were 43.5% for Trump, 40.2% for Biden and eight.7% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

I've written before that the presidency is just not decided by the national popular vote. Instead, each state has a certain variety of Electoral Votes (EVs) based largely on population, with each state awarding its EVs on a winner-take-all basis. It takes 270 EVs to win. The EV system is more likely to favor Trump, leaving Biden further behind than he was within the national polls.

Biden will remain president until his term ends in January 2025. His net approval rating within the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is -17.7, with 56.2% disapproving and 38.5% approving. His net approval is worse than that of other previous presidents at this point of their term, with the exceptions of George Bush Sr. and Jimmy Carter.

Trump's net popularity within the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is -12.0, with 53.7% unfavorable and 41.7% favorable. His rankings have remained relatively unchanged since April. Unfortunately, FiveThirtyEight doesn’t have any popularity rankings for Harris.

Will Harris win?

It is just too early to investigate the polls between Harris and Trump. Harris has not been a presidential candidate before today, and Biden's name recognition explains his often higher results than Harris. A recent national YouGov poll for CBS News showed Trump leading Biden by five percentage points and Harris by three percentage points.

Two things should profit Harris. First, economic data has improved, inflation has fallen and real incomes have risen. Second, Biden would have been almost 82 years old when he was elected, while Harris would have been will only be 60 until then. Trump is 78, so the age distribution that was unfavorable for Biden might be favorable for Harris.

Still, it is extremely dangerous to nominate a candidate who has not proven himself within the primaries. When Harris ran for president in 2020, she withdrew from the race in December 2019, before the primaries.

However, with Biden's age a significant concern for voters and him already trailing Trump, a switch to a brand new candidate could prove a smart move for the Democrats. In the past, changes within the prime ministership have worked well for Australian parties: Malcolm Turnbull won the 2016 federal election after replacing Tony Abbott, and Scott Morrison won in 2019 after replacing Turnbull.

While Biden is losing, the polls for the US Senate within the swing states of the presidential election are in PennsylvaniaNevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona all point to the Democratic candidates winning and doing a lot better than Biden, so perhaps the Democrats just have a Biden problem.

US profits rise

In June, Total inflation fell 0.1% after being unchanged in May, and 12-month inflation fell to three.0%, the bottom since June 2023. Core inflation rose 0.1% in June, after rising 0.2% in May, and rose 3.3% over the past 12 months, the smallest increase since April 2021.

Low inflation in May and June has increased real (inflation-adjusted) incomes in these months, with real hourly wage In May and June, real weekly earnings rose by 0.9% and real weekly wages rose by 0.7%. In the 12 months to June, real hourly earnings rose by 0.8% and real weekly wages rose by 0.6%.

In June, net sales amounted to 206,000 Jobs have been addedhowever the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 4.1%. This is the very best unemployment rate since November 2021.