If California consumers are suddenly optimistic, as one survey suggests, why did one other survey show that the Golden State's economy is facing bad times?
Welcome to a wierd gap in opinions.
Let's start with the Conference Board's September survey, which showed consumer confidence nationwide reversed to a 19-month high . Not only was it an enormous one-month increase, these suddenly optimistic California buyers also had completely opposite financial feelings in comparison with the declining national optimism present in the identical survey.
Next, compare this completely satisfied conversation within the Golden State with a brand new Public Policy Institute of California The survey was conducted from August twenty ninth to September ninth . That poll found that 61% of Golden Staters selected the grim side of this query: “Do you think we will have good or bad times financially in the next 12 months?”
To explain this gap , My trusty spreadsheet reviewed the PPIC survey which has been routinely looking for answers to the query of economic prospects since 1999. The recent dismal result could possibly be viewed as relative optimism within the short term. Let me explain.
The 61% of Californians who expect bad times ahead represents an improvement from the 68% present in the June survey. In fact, this latest result represents the bottom level of bad times sentiment going back ten surveys, which was 57% in April 2022. Hey, in June 2020 – 4 years ago – 80% expected bad times in the longer term.
Some of this fear-based fluctuation was attributable to the Federal Reserve. In March 2022, when The The central bank began a war on inflation with painfully high rates of interest . The The tight monetary policy ended this month .
We must note that the conflicting signals of economic fear in September stand in sharp contrast to the pre-pandemic years of 2015-2019, seen by many as the great old days.
The 21 PPIC surveys of this era averaged 40% bad times within the forecast results. California's astonishingly buoyant consumer confidence is simply on par with average optimism from 2015-2019.
Now, over 1 / 4 century of PPIC economic surveys suggest that Californians enjoy worrying concerning the economy.
In 61 of 97 PPIC polls since 1999, there have been more people predicting “bad news” than “good news.” Or, on average, 53% of Californians surveyed predicted bad times while 39% saw good times coming.
Jonathan Lansner is a business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He may be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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