Putin's visit to Mongolia contradicts the ICC arrest warrant and puts the diplomacy of the neutral “third neighbor” to the test

Vladimir Putin arrived in Mongolia on September 2ndthe primary visit of the Russian President to a member state of the International Criminal Court (ICC) since the authority has issued an arrest warrant for his arrest in 2023. While officially Soviet-Mongolian military victory In the Second World War, Putin's visit will test the small Central Asian country's policy of neutrality and the influence of international institutions.

Mongolia, a land of justice 3.3 million people However, it has an enormous geographical territory and has long conducted its foreign policy within the shadow of Russia and China, with whom it has extensive historical and economic ties.

The country has sought to strengthen its independence from its more powerful neighbours by establishing friendly relations with so-called third neighbor Countries comparable to the United States, Germany, Japan and South Korea.

With this approach, Mongolia is attempting to carve out a distinct segment for itself on the international stage and present itself as a neutral diplomatic meeting place. Ulaanbaatar DialogueFor example, it’s a possibility for countries within the region and other invited nations, including the United States and EU Member States, to debate problems with Climate change, regional security and demanding minerals.

As Scholars of Mongolia and ChinaWe attended the last such dialogue in June 2024 and witnessed Mongolia's diplomatic efforts firsthand. It's a technique that has worked for the country, but as events like Putin's visit show, it will possibly be a difficult balancing act.

A closely observed visit

The timing of Putin’s trip is officially linked to history. It marks each the eighty fifth anniversary of the Battle of Khalkhin Gol – during which joint Soviet-Mongolian forces defeated Japanese troops in World War II – and the Establishment of the National Railway Company of Mongolia of each countries 75 years ago.

But it’s a third historic milestone, the fifth anniversary of a comprehensive Russian-Mongolian strategic partnershipwhich underlines the importance of the visit from a contemporary geopolitical perspective.

In addition to the friendly relations with “third neighbors,” Mongolia continues to take care of close relations with Moscow, although Putin is taken into account a pariah by many parts of the international community. Just recently, in July, Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh met with Putin in Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

But Putin’s visit now – the first he has brought into the country since 2019 – poses a challenge for Mongolia because it seeks to safeguard its commitments and alliances with the Western-led international orderwhich incorporates the ICC, and its desire to stay friends with its powerful neighbours.

Few things testify to this diplomatic balancing act like Mongolia’s membership within the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant against Putin for his alleged role within the illegal deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia. Ukraine has urged Mongolia is to arrest Putin, citing the ICC’s founding treaty, which Roman Statutewhich instructs member states to take motion when individuals against whom a court order has been issued enter their territory.

However, the ICC lacks an efficient enforcement mechanism and member states could also exempted from carrying out arrests if it conflicts with certain contractual obligations or the diplomatic immunity offered to a different party.

Putin’s visit is meant to indicate how little could be done to maintain Moscow in check. Given the facility imbalance between the states, Mongolia will likely show how far it’s willing to go to accommodate its powerful neighbor.

Mongolia as a “third neighbour”

For almost 70 years, Mongolia was closely allied with the Soviet Union. But the collapse of communism and the following geopolitical realignment of the post-war order forced the country to vary its economic and political relations.

This made Mongolia the one former communist state in Asia that Introduction of a democratic political system and an open economyIt gained favor with the United States and other Western countries, who viewed the country as a model for the region.

Putin's expected trip is just the most recent in a string of high-level state visits in recent times, as Mongolia strives to take care of close ties with its neighbors while expanding partnerships with other countries.

So far, Mongolia has received heads of state or foreign ministers from the United States, Slovenia, the Philippines, Belarus, the United Kingdom and Germany in 2024. In 2023, Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene traveled to the United States and met with Vice President Kamala Harrisand to China to see President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Qiang.

The two French presidents Emmanuel Macron And Pope Francis recently visited Ulaanbaatar.

Mongolia cannot escape geography

While Ulan Bator's soft power efforts have won it sympathy and friends world wide, they aren’t as vital as its geographical location. As a landlocked country between Russia and China, Mongolia is defenseless against the whims of its two giant neighbors.

Mongolia depends on Russia for its petrol and diesel supplies and for much of its electricity. In addition, Mongolia is Old agreements from the Soviet eraRussia holds 50% of the shares in several vital infrastructure and mining projects in Mongolia. In particular, Russia is a partner within the Mongolian railway systemwhich has gained importance as a trade corridor between China and Russia and between China and Europe.

Mongolia fears a disruption of the fuel supply and the transport network when Russia, within the midst of a war, puts its own energy needs above the interests of its neighbours, regardless of how close those ties could also be.

Similarly, Mongolia relies on China for nearly all of its non-energy imports, including food, consumer goods and manufactured products. And China is the destination for 90 percent of Mongolia's exports, mainly coal and copper.

Both Russia and China have used their economic and political strength as leverage against Mongolia up to now, as they proved to be slights, comparable to China cutting off trade and a serious loan in 2016 in protest against a visit of the Dalai Lama to Mongolia.

Mongolia and the brand new Chinese-Russian alignment

Mongolia and other Central Asian states face recent challenges Russia and China are moving closer together politically and economically.

Mongolia played the role of a Buffer state between the Soviet Union and China and took advantage of the rivalry between the 2 superpowers to attain and maintain its independent status.

But the growing friendship between China and Russia – highlighted by Putin and Xi’s Declaration of a partnership without borderlines in February 2022, just days before Russian troops invaded Ukraine – raises the query of whether China and Russia will begin to work together to realize much more influence over Mongolia and other smaller states within the region.

It is these geopolitical concerns that Ulaanbaatar may bear in mind during Putin's visit. Even though Mongolia is affected by the sanctions against Russia, Transport and business connections disruptedThe country has stayed out of international confrontations with Moscow.

Like China, Mongolia also frequently renounces United Nations Resolutions condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, as an indication that Mongolia stays faithful to its policy as a 3rd neighbor, it was also careful to not violate the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies against Russia.

While Mongolia recognizes the importance of Putin's visit to maintaining good relations and fuel supplies to the country, it’s also concerned about how the visit and the expected non-enforcement of ICC sanctions could damage the country's popularity with global institutions and powers outside the region.

In a changing world order, Mongolia is doing its best to preserve its independence by emphasizing its role as a neutral state and friend to all. But visits like Putin's show how difficult that endeavor could be.